Aroldis Chapman, Flamethrower, Defects from Cuban Team

One of the most promising baseball players on the Cuban National team, Aroldis Chapman, has reportedly defected from the Cuban National team during a tournament in Holland.

This according to a story on the Cuban site, Cubaencuentro.com.

The 21-year-old Chapman has reportedly hit 102 mph on the gun and pitched in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where he struck out 8 in 6 1/3 innings but had a 5.68 ERA.

He was 11-4 with a 4.03 ERA last season, striking out 130 in 118 1/3 innings.

Looks like Cubaencuentro.com actually talked to the kid and here's what he had to say:

"I'm very happy. Until now everything has come out well. It was a plan I had, a decision I took. I wanted to test myself at this level."

He wouldn't say exactly what city he was in, for security reasons. How James Bond of him.

"I left normally, through the door of the hotel, and got in a car. It was easy." He now plans to "sign with a team and play in the Major Leagues."

Looks like Scott Boras has a busy night ahead of himself. And the Yankees. And the Red Sox. And maybe the White Sox too with Alexei and Contreras on the team...

Open letter to Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry

OK guys, things aren't going very well. I've been talking to some of my Cub-fan friends and they're seriously pissed. Like, totally upset.

Granted, most of them are your typical, reactionary Cub fans, but with the way this team is under performing, you have to sympathize at least a little bit with them. Is it your fault? Partly. It's mostly the players' fault for sucking so bad. No change of hitting coach or manager or third baseman is going to change that.

But here are some things you can do right now to relieve some of the pressure.

1. Take Soriano out of the leadoff spot: Let him get his head straight in the 6-7-8 hole. Anywhere but at the top of the order. People are really upset about him leading off so this will placate them quite a bit.
   
2. Sign Pedro Martinez: This will get people talking and distract everyone from how bad the offense is. Maybe he can come out of the bullpen and close some games out.
3. Put Soriano at 2B, Fontenot at 3B, and Hoffpauir/Fox in LF: Those last two guys are the only ones hitting lately, so why not get them in the lineup on a regular rotation? They can't be any worse than Soriano out in LF. This way you can stop playing Blanco at 2B when all he can be is a serviceable backup.
4. Keep Gregg as the closer: Marmol is your nastiest reliever, so keep him in a place where you can use him in the 7th and 8th innings. That's why your best reliever shouldn't be your closer.
5. Lou, you're gonna have to blow your top: He sounds like he's through with "making a fool of himself" on the field with his tirades. That he's matured beyond that part of his life. But seriously, this team needs some fire so it's time for Lou to crawl up to the mound and throw a rosin grenade at an umpire. Any umpire. You're gonna let this guy show you up Lou?

Esteban German: The Man Moneyball Forgot

One of the things I love to do on this site is single out players that haven't been given a full shot in the bigs even though I'm convinced they could succeed. That's why I had so much fun writing about the inimitable Roberto Petagine.

There's another player I feel just as strongly about but, unlike the 38-year-old Petagine, he's "only" 31 years old, which means he might still get his shot.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Esteban German:



For the people out there who read the Petagine piece, you must be thinking: "How could this be a guy that Moneyball forgot? He's wearing an Oakland A's uniform, for christ's sake!"

And that's part of the mystique behind this story: Esteban German was in full swing in the A's minor league system when Moneyball came out and when the Moneyball front office was operating the team.

They either a) thought he wasn't going to make it in the bigs or b) overlooked him.

Hard to believe that they overlooked him after you see his numbers, so we'll dig into the scouting reports afterward to see what's going on here.

Esteban Makes His Case

Let's dig right into the numbers to see what type of player "the Germ" was back in his minor-league days with the A's:



He's a burner and he gets on base—that much is clear. He managed to walk 102 times as a 20-year old in 1999, which is impressive. He adjusted to each new level and capped his five-year run to the majors with a pretty good year at AAA, where he walked more times than he struck out—something he hadn't done before.

That's pretty nice progress.

The Up and Down Era

Here's where you'll see a lot of prospects get "forgotten." They dominate at the AAA level, get called up for a few ABs, and after a few seasons people start to wonder "Wasn't this guy supposed to be good?" Well, German proved that AAA was no longer a challenge to him during these three years, especially with his 2005 season.

As you'll see, he's no longer with the A's at that point—he became a free agent and signed with Texas.

Take a minute and appreciate what Texas has in this guy right now: a 26-year-old 2B/3B that can steal a base at will and get on base at a very healthy clip. He can't hit homeruns, but that's OK. This guy could be your prototypical leadoff guy—all for around $300,000.

But take a look at who Texas has on the team in 2005: Hank Blalock at 3B and Alfonso Soriano at 2B. So Esteban German gets traded to the one place where you're pretty sure he'll get a chance to start: the Royals.

Esteban Makes his First Million

Finally, Esteban German gets his shot to stick with a big-league team—even if it is the Royals. Does he get a chance to start right away? Of course not, the Royals have Mark Grudzielanek at 2B and Mark Teahen at 3B.

Anyway, over the course of three seasons with the Royals, German became a pretty solid, reliable guy off the bench. He even started hitting with a little more pop. His steals are down and his walks aren't as impressive, but these are small samples.

In 2008, German made a salary of $1,000,000 for the first time. Go German!

Oh and by the way, this isn't a case where the numbers look great and the scouts think he sucks—the scouts liked what they saw.

Where is he Today?

Where else but in the minor leagues? At the start of the 2009 season, the Royals released him to make room for the Juan Cruz signing. And then the Cubs picked him up in spring training, which was pretty cool because I thought I'd get to see him play quite a bit. And you can always use a burner with plate patience on the bench.

But for naught—he was released and then signed by Texas. Here's what the 31-year-old German has been doing at AAA Oklahoma:



Esteban German may not be Otis Nixon out there, but he's definitely got the speed and ability to steal his fair share of bases—especially because he's so good at getting on base.

My verdict? This guy should get a chance to start somewhere. Maybe the Marlins should look into it, their 2B and 3B situations aren't looking so hot right now with Dan Uggla and Emilio Bonifacio struggling.

German could turn out to be a nifty little player somewhere close to what Chone Figgins does with the Angels.

I pull for these kinds of guys because their numbers show they can play at the big-league level. But with German it's different because he isn't a power hitter. He's a small ball kind of guy, which is kind of endearing. If you like to root for the underdog like I do, he's your guy.

And also, he comes off real genuine and humble—even in Spanish interviews. Which is more than we can say for Sammy "the Douche" Sosa.

Esteban, I salute you. Godspeed.

Why Homeruns are so Important

OBP is obviously one of my favorite statistics. I loved Moneyball and I still can't figure out why so many MLB managers refuse to admit how important it is in measuring how good a player is.

But is OBP the most important statistic out there?

It depends.

If you're talking about comparing one player to another, I'd probably say yes—OBP is the best way of comparing two players. But is it the end all be all of stats?

Nope. Homeruns are.

Before you get your panties all in a bunch over sounding like a steroid-munching, ignorant fan that digs the long ball, let me explain.

Baseball is about winning. You win by scoring more runs than the other team. Scoring more runs, therefore, is the most important part of the game. So if you can do something to create a run all by yourself—and do that a lot—then you're very valuable.

Enter the homerun. Hitting a homerun means you're creating a run and an RBI in one swing. Granted, getting on base is the first step in scoring a run, but getting a homerun is an even faster way of getting on and getting in.

Ideally, you have a guy like Albert Pujols that hits tons of homeruns (37 last year) and has a high OBP (.462 last year), but if you had to place value on a player, you have to give the homerun its due.

In terms of pure statistics relative to winning ballgames, there's nothing that can compare to it. Let's take a look at the top ten players for the two categories last year.



Ideally, you have a guy on both lists, which makes Manny and Albert the most valuable players. But take a good look, would you rather have Chipper Jones or Ryan Howard (age issues aside)? Who brings more value to your team, Joe Mauer or Ryan Braun?

These are the questions we are faced with, people. Go forth and answer them.

Why do the Cubs Suck at Developing Position Players?

The inimitable Tuffy Rhodes

Pop quiz, hot shot: name a position player that came up through the Cubs' minor league system and went on to become a superstar.

For the sake of this discussion, let's leave Geovany Soto out of it. He had a great rookie year, but it's too early to tell if we can really rank him up there in superstar land—especially with the numbers he's putting up right now.

With the draft going down this week, here's what the Tribune had to say about the Cubs' farms system's ability to produce good position players:

Geovany Soto had a breakthrough season last year, earning National League Rookie of the Year honors, but has regressed in '09. Micah Hoffpauir is contributing in a limited role, while Jake Fox, recently called up after tearing up the Pacific Coast League, can't find his way into the Cubs' lineup. Ryan Theriot has been consistent at short but lacks the dominant offensive numbers to make him an impact player. At this point, it appears that the top position player drafted by the Cubs in the last decade was an obscure catcher selected in the 38th round of the 2002 draft. That catcher turned out to be Randy Wells, now one of the most dominating rookie pitchers in the National League.Those names are kind of a stretch since Wells isn't "proven" by any means, and neither is Fox or Hoffpauir.

I'm looking for superstars, not just contributors or everyday players. So let's take a look at what the Cubs have done in the past and see how bad they've really been.

The Candidates
We can't go back more than 30 years because I wasn't alive and going that far back bores me. So we'll start off at an arbitrary point of my own choosing: the Shawon Dunston era. He'll be our Jesus and our discussion will be limited exclusively to AD (Año Domini or After Dunston).

Was Dunston a superstar? In Chicago he certainly was, but a career .269 hitter (.296 OBP) with two All-Star appearances and no gold gloves (blame the Wizard of Oz for that) does not a superstar make.

I started by listing some recognizable names that came up through the Cubs system like Dwight Smith (fail), Damon Berryhill, Rich Amaral, Dave Martinez, Doug Dascenzo, Mark Grace, Joe Girardi, Doug Glanville, Eric Hinske, and Brendan Harris.

The only guy out of that bunch that deserves to be highlighted is Mark Grace. Not only because I have a man crush on the dude's swing, but because his numbers warrant it:


Gracey also won four gold gloves and was an All Star three times.

But what about Joe Girardi and Ryne Sandberg? Well, Joe was all right and a great fixture in Chicago, but he wasn't a superstar. And as for Ryno, he was actually drafted by the Phillies and got traded to the Cubs with Larry Bowa for Ivan DeJesus. So that's a no go.

Mark Grace...that's it.

Well, maybe there are some guys in the minor leagues that might develop into superstars.

Potential Candidates

The first name you'll hear in this argument is Josh Vitters, as you can see from this Tribune article that calls him "the 3rd basemen of the future." He's also been ranked as the Cubs top prospect by Baseball America. How's the 19-year old doing?



He's absolutely killing the ball right now, the only thing that's worrisome is his BB/K ratio. That's not very many walks, although the scouts are saying that's because he's not missing any balls right now. If the pitchers throw a strike, he's nailing it. But what about all those strikeouts then?

Then we have OF Tyler Colvin, the top pick of the 2007 draft. I think I've said all I need to say about him. Suffice to say I don't think he'll amount to superstar material.

The only other guy I would mention is Tony Thomas, I guy I started following right after he was drafted in 2007. At the time I saw him as a #1 or #2 hitter: he could hit, draw a walk, and had some speed. Lately his power seems to be coming around and he isn't walking as much. Still, he's about the most exciting thing going in the system in terms of position players besides Vitters:


This is what passes for "exciting" these days

Why the Cubs Suck

A friend of mine keeps trying to lay the blame on "The Cubs" or "Cubs management." But personnel has changed over the years so you can't really blame a specific group of people.

Can you blame Jim Hendry? He's been with the cubs since 1995 and was in a real position of leadership since 2001. Is this just a case of bad luck or a bad philosophy of developing/drafting players?

I think it comes down to philosophy. What's the Cubs' philosophy when it comes to drafting and developing players? Is there one? The Rangers pitchers are all about eliminating pitch counts and getting them to throw more. The A's have always been about plate discipline. The Braves are about producing studs—plain and simple.

The Cubs don't really have a direction. They're slowly creeping into the realm of the Yankees and Red Sox—large-market teams with too much money for their own good. Not enough of attention is being paid to the farm system, which was once so highly touted until those prospects flamed out (Hee Seop Choi, Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill, etc.).

They need some soul. Some direction. Some unified idea of what they want to do with position players to help them get better and become productive in the big leagues. Once they lay down a sensible plan, then they'll be able to give this another shot.

Until then I'll keep waiting for Josh Vitters and Tony Thomas to bring a little respectability to the farm.

MLB Draft: Cubs Mess Up Again

So the first round of the draft was yesterday and the Cubs took college OF Brett Jackson, who looks like he might be a decent center fielder. But "might" and "decent" isn't very exciting way to describe your first pick in the draft. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker has on him:

It's not a great Draft class for college bats, particularly in the outfield, so one with the athleticism Jackson has is bound to be noticed. He runs well on both sides of the ball, has a decent approach at the plate and plays a good center field right now. Some may see him as a tweener who isn't a leadoff hitter or a No. 3 type. If he gets bigger he will have to move to a corner, where how much power he actually has becomes a bigger question. He's got more value if he can stay in center, and the team that takes him may be hoping he can stay put. Click here for the video.

So he isn't a leadoff guy and he isn't a power guy, although he might get some power if he gets "bigger." But then he won't be a centerfielder anymore. So basically this guy is a blank slate with great athleticism. Hmmm, sounds awfully similar to another recent top pick: Tyler Colvin. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker had on him back in 2006:

He has a good hitting approach, though sometimes he's too aggressive. He hasn't shown much power, but there's room for growth there. He has enough speed to possibly stay in center.

Colvin's big problem, as everyone already knew before he signed, was his approach at the plate. Too many Ks and too few walks. In his minor-league career so far he's got 91 BB to 289 Ks, which is terrible. He's floundering at AA right now, which with those numbers is no surprise.

Why am I going aggro about this year's pick? Well, because Brett Jackson looks like Tyler Colvin Redux, and Tyler Colvin hasn't done jack. And quite frankly, it doesn't look like he will unless he pulls a Samardzija and starts to get better every time he gets promoted.

Have we not learned anything? Or are the Cubs just doomed to never develop another position player again? It doesn't matter if you think you develop or draft studs, the Cubs aren't going to do either with this pick.

Let's check out the stats from their final season in college:



Project Mr. Brett Jackson to a full season and he'll strike out around 180 times. For a guy with power that "might" develop, that's not good. Unless you're Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn, you're not allowed to strike out this much.

But that's not the main reason why I'm so upset about this pick. Take a look at who got picked RIGHT AFTER BRETT JACKSON: a kid named Tim Wheeler. Let's see what the Draft Tracker has to say about him:

Wheeler is a pretty advanced college hitter whose best assets are his ability to make contact and his speed. He should be the type who can hit at or near the top of a lineup with the potential to be a plus base-stealer. He uses his speed well in center and has the skills to stay there. Without much power, he probably won't be off the charts, but could be a very solid college draftee in June. Click here for the video.

So he's fast and can play center. Oh and he can hit at the top of the order. That's good to know. Not that many "maybes" in this guy's game. Let's see how his numbers compare:



Dear god! Why did we not pick this guy instead? Because he doesn't project to hit a ton of homeruns? He hit 18 to Brett Jackson's 8! Look at the young man's walks! His steals! His fielding percentage! ARGHHH!!!

What the hell is going on here?

I've been working on a post on how the Cubs suck at drafting/developing position players is so bad. So far in this year's draft they don't appear to be reversing the trend...

Note: Make sure to check out Baseball America's scouting report on all the first rounders. Jackson and Wheeler are at the bottom of the page.

Your Best Reliever Shouldn't be the Closer

It's the bottom of the seventh inning and you're facing runners on second and third with nobody out. The score is 4–2 them and this game puts you one step closer to clinching your division. Your starter has run out of gas and, as the manager slowly walks towards the mound, you wonder who he's going to put in the ballgame.

Who do you want him to call down from the pen? Wouldn't you want the best reliever on the team to come in and try to snuff out this rally?

Of course you do, but most managers don't do that. They've fallen into the trap of designated their best reliever as "the closer," and that guy doesn't come into the game until at least the 8th inning.

Which means you're putting a guy into the most crucial part of the game that, while be may be very good, isn't the best. Which I think is dumb.

The Carlos Marmol Effect

At the start of the 2009 season, Cubs manager Lou Piniella decided that Kevin Gregg would be the closer over the young flamethrower Carlos Marmol. A lot of Cub fans were upset because they thought (correctly, in my opinion) that Marmol was the better reliever. Therefore, he should be the closer.

Whatever Lou Piniella's reasons were for picking Gregg as the closer (and Marmol's occasional control problems probably had something to do with this), his decision allowed him to bring in Marmol whenever he wanted, which I thought was brilliant.

The downside, of course, is that Kevin Gregg is the closer. And he has not been very good. But I'd rather see him be "not very good" with nobody on base in the ninth inning than with runners on second and third and nobody out in the 7th.

The problem is Gregg is doing so poorly that he won't last as the closer and this whole experiment won't work. Pretty soon you'll be seeing Kevin Gregg (or Angel Guzman) coming into the toughest game situations in the 7th inning instead of Marmol.

Which just goes to show you how scared MLB teams are to try something new, regardless of how much sense it makes.

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