Castro and Barney: Are They Really That Good?

The Cubs’ season has sucked so far in 2011, and after last night it doesn’t look like things are getting any better.

But all the analysts have all agreed on the few bright spots: Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Alfonso Soriano.

OK I’m kidding about Soriano. But the Tribune called Starlin Castro the MVP of the first half and Barney was designated the Rookie of the Year so far. Considering most of the other rookies on the team have been awful, Barney’s “award” is one of those de facto deals.

But I think we need to take a closer look at all the accolades these two are accumulating. But how good are they, really?

Starlin Castro

Castro managed to hit .300 last year as a 20-year old, which is pretty unbelievable. Granted, he only had 463 at bats, but that’s still very impressive. And so far this season, he’s hitting .304.

Other than his average, how productive has Castro been? His slugging percentage last year was a dismal .408 since he hit just three homeruns. He did crank out 31 doubles, so the power could be dormant and may develop as he gets older and starts to get some facial hair.

Another positive: he’s slugging way better this season (.423) and already has 24 doubles, 8 triples (tied for 2nd in the NL), and two homeruns. So he’s getting better.

But still...what we’re looking at is a young guy who is developing. If he continues to hit .300 and develop his power, we’re looking at a guy that could put up some 15-20 homeruns while playing an also developing shorstop.

This is a good thing, but it’s not like we can just slot him into the 3 hole and wave goodbye to Aramis and Soriano. Starlin is not going to be the cleanup hitter on this team, and that’s something to think about as the veterans get older and we realize we have no replacement.

One thing that worries me about Castro is his on-base percentage. It looks mediocre at .332, but that’s because his average is so high. Castro has just 16 walks to his 48 strikeouts, which pans out to a 32/96 BB/K ratio. If he can hit .300 and keep that ratio that would be pretty impressive, but I’d like to see him control the zone a little better.

All in all, we have a very good young player whose ceiling is very high. But he doesn’t seem to bring any one talent that is considered an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scales. Not a bad thing, just something a lot of people have ignored because they see him as the best player on the team. I just want to remind people that, if he’s the best player on the team, then we need to acquire some other players ASAP.

Darwin Barney

Here’s the thing about Barney: the reason why so many people think he’s so god and they like him so much is because nobody expected anything from him.

He was branded as a defensive/bench player long ago and the fact that stole the job in spring training means he stole his way into all our underdog rooting, masochistic Cub-fan hearts.

But what has he done this year?

.303 AVG, .333 OBP, .370 SLG

He’s played some very good defense at 2B and that’s the main reason he’s kept the job over Blake DeWitt, who has some pop in the bat.

Pop is not something you’d find in Barney’s bat, as evidenced by that .370 slugging percentage. He has 1 homer and 11 doubles in what’s essentially been half a season.

And yes, I’m harping on OBP again: Barney’s is OK because his average has been good, but his BB/K ratio is pretty bad. It’s not Corey Patterson territory but it’s close:

10 BB and 33 Ks.

I like his inside-out swing and the way he makes contact with the ball, but unless he progresses a ton and somehow shows he can do more that what he’s done, what we’re looking at here is the second coming of Ryan Theriot with less speed and a worse OBP.

Harsh for a rookie, I know, but there’s a reason why no one ever saw him as a regular.

The Other Young Guys

I know some people out there want to see what the young guys can do and blow this season up. Bring up Brett Jackson, put Colvin in left every day, and get rid of all the aging veterans.

I like the plan.

But how will you replace the power Aramis and Peña bring? And yes, even Soriano? Colvin might hit 30 in the bigs, but his strike-zone discipline is horrible. He’s in Soriano territory.

The Gist

We have some nice, young players on the team. Starlin Castro is our best player. But we’re sorely lacking in young, premium power and in strike-zone discipline.

Without that, we’ll always have to rely on the free-agent market for help. In this league, in this day in age, you can’t win without power, and Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney will not provide that.