Thursday, June 23, 2011

Can Ichiro Really Hit 40 Homeruns? Should He?



A very provocative story on Yahoo Sports yesterday about how Ichiro is so "set in his ways" that he won't change his hitting style even though his hitting style has him hitting a paltry (for Ichiro, anyway) .279.

The author's argument is built around Ichiro's legendary but hidden power. Many a fan has enjoyed Ichiro's batting practice displays of power, where he supposedly hits ball after ball deep into the stands.

It's the reason why so many have implored the 5'11, 172-pound Ichiro to enter the home run derby.

Alas, it hasn't happened, and that's because Ichiro doesn't believe that's the player he is. He was taught the fundamentals of hitting and he believes he should be a player with 200 hits that hits the ball where it's hit.

Batting average is his ultimate judge, and right now that judge things he sucks (he's a career .329 hitter).

But the article makes a few assumptions that are just plain wrong:
  • Ichiro can hit home runs at will
  • Ichiro can sacrifice some batting average in exchange for "trying" to hit home runs and succeed
  • Hitting home runs in BP says something about your ability to hit home runs against MLB pitching
  • Ichiro's speed is declining and that's why he isn't hitting .300
Could Ichiro hit "more" home runs that he typically does? Sure, he only averages about eight per season. But this idea that he can hit home runs at will because his BP sessions are so amazing is ridiculous.

Would I like to see him try? Would I be thrilled to see Ichiro torment pitchers and put up a .270, 30 HR, 100 RBI line?

You bet your ass I would...it would be the most awesome "flip" of a switch since Brady Anderson hit 50 in 1996 and Jose Bautista turned into Albert Pujols in 2010.

Will it happen?

Probably not.

If it were true, Ichiro wouldn't be hitting .279 right now.

For an even harsher look at the Yahoo Article, check out this guy's rant.