Thursday, July 23, 2009

Jose Iglesias to the Cubs: Thank You

OK, so this isn't breaking news, but the Red Sox are going to make an announcement real soon about signing Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias for $8.2 million.

You could read about that anywhere, right?

True, but what I'm not seeing anywhere else is that their original offer was for $6.5 million. That was until the Cubs countered with an offer of their own and that led the Sox to jack it up to $8.2 million.

How do I know this? I know Spanish, that's how.

Do not underestimate what Señor Gammons can do.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Moneyball 2.0: Defense



Just finished reading this awesome piece in the New York Times about this new system of cameras that is being installed in ballparks across the country. They will be able to measure every batted ball, track the fielders chasing after it, and even see how efficiently baserunners are rounding the bases.

In other words...wow. Defense has long been the one unquantifiable part of the game, so I'm sure scouts around the country are like, "Crap."

Check out the video on the article to see how it works. Looks pretty spiffy to me.

What Does it Mean?

This should change the way players get paid, the way they're ranked, and the way the fans view them. Scratch that last one—fans will probably still just look at batting average and homeruns.

But for stat freaks like myself, having a system that quantifies defense by looking at range, speed to the ball, and all these other things this system brings to the table is going to be very interesting.

It will show which of the current defensive models are the most accurate and it should tell us more about who are the best defensive players in the league. You know agents around the league are going to start using this to get guys a fatter paycheck or a starting job if teams really buy into the stats this system produces.

It's all going to be very interesting.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Is Jim Hendry to Blame for the Cubs' Sucking?

Yesterday's article in the Tribune talks about Jim Hendry and how much blame can/should be put on him. It's an interesting idea because it applies to almost everything in life.

The basic question comes down to this: if someone makes a decision that, at the time, is the "right call," then is he/she responsible if that decision winds up not working out?

Case in point: Milton Bradley. He was third in OBP last year behind Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols. He's a switch hitter and hit 22 HRs.

When Hendry signed him, I thought it was a fantastic deal. Everyone can bitch and moan about how they should've signed Raul Ibañez instead because he's having a ridiculous season (.312 22HRs), but no one ever thought he would do what he's doing right now.

Bradley, on the other hand, was considered a good sign (by most people that know their stuff, including myself).

That has not been the case, however. He's hitting .239 with 5 HRs.

Is this Jim Hendry's fault? Should he be blamed/fired for moves like this?

According to Rick Morrissey of the Trib, he should:
You can say it's not his fault Bradley can't hit. You can say it's not his fault Soriano can't hit.

Ultimately, however, it is his fault.
Is it? Shouldn't the player ultimately feel the brunt of this? Isn't it Bradley and Soriano's fault that they haven't hit?

Sure, but you can't fire them without losing your investment, so that's why GMs and managers get fired instead.

The question is: does Jim Hendry deserve to get fired?

He's been at the helm for seven years and he's been with the team since 1995. Sure, they've become big spenders and got close to the World Series that one time, but the farm system sucks and all that money being spend on superstars doesn't seem to be invested very efficiently.

I do disagree with Morrissey in a couple of his lines:
It's a general manager's job to look into the future and see whether a player with a history of anger issues will be able to perform...

It's a general manager's job to predict whether a manager will be effective long term.
It is NOT a GMs job to predict the future. But he/she should be held responsible for a string of decisions that simply don't work out.

If you make a bunch of decisions at work that don't pan out, over and over again, wouldn't you be worried about getting fired?

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Aroldis Chapman, Flamethrower, Defects from Cuban Team

One of the most promising baseball players on the Cuban National team, Aroldis Chapman, has reportedly defected from the Cuban National team during a tournament in Holland.

This according to a story on the Cuban site, Cubaencuentro.com.

The 21-year-old Chapman has reportedly hit 102 mph on the gun and pitched in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where he struck out 8 in 6 1/3 innings but had a 5.68 ERA.

He was 11-4 with a 4.03 ERA last season, striking out 130 in 118 1/3 innings.

Looks like Cubaencuentro.com actually talked to the kid and here's what he had to say:

"I'm very happy. Until now everything has come out well. It was a plan I had, a decision I took. I wanted to test myself at this level."

He wouldn't say exactly what city he was in, for security reasons. How James Bond of him.

"I left normally, through the door of the hotel, and got in a car. It was easy." He now plans to "sign with a team and play in the Major Leagues."

Looks like Scott Boras has a busy night ahead of himself. And the Yankees. And the Red Sox. And maybe the White Sox too with Alexei and Contreras on the team...

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Open letter to Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry



OK guys, things aren't going very well. I've been talking to some of my Cub-fan friends and they're seriously pissed. Like, totally upset.

Granted, most of them are your typical, reactionary Cub fans, but with the way this team is under performing, you have to sympathize at least a little bit with them. Is it your fault? Partly. It's mostly the players' fault for sucking so bad. No change of hitting coach or manager or third baseman is going to change that.

But here are some things you can do right now to relieve some of the pressure.

  1. Take Soriano out of the leadoff spot: Let him get his head straight in the 6-7-8 hole. Anywhere but at the top of the order. People are really upset about him leading off so this will placate them quite a bit.
  2. Sign Pedro Martinez: This will get people talking and distract everyone from how bad the offense is. Maybe he can come out of the bullpen and close some games out.
  3. Put Soriano at 2B, Fontenot at 3B, and Hoffpauir/Fox in LF: Those last two guys are the only ones hitting lately, so why not get them in the lineup on a regular rotation? They can't be any worse than Soriano out in LF. This way you can stop playing Blanco at 2B when all he can be is a serviceable backup.
  4. Keep Gregg as the closer: Marmol is your nastiest reliever, so keep him in a place where you can use him in the 7th and 8th innings. That's why your best reliever shouldn't be your closer.
  5. Lou, you're gonna have to blow your top: He sounds like he's through with "making a fool of himself" on the field with his tirades. That he's matured beyond that part of his life. But seriously, this team needs some fire so it's time for Lou to crawl up to the mound and throw a rosin grenade at an umpire. Any umpire. You're gonna let this guy show you up Lou?


Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Esteban German: The Man Moneyball Forgot

One of the things I love to do on this site is single out players that haven't been given a full shot in the bigs even though I'm convinced they could succeed. That's why I had so much fun writing about the inimitable Roberto Petagine.

There's another player I feel just as strongly about but, unlike the 38-year-old Petagine, he's "only" 31 years old, which means he might still get his shot.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Esteban German:



For the people out there who read the Petagine piece, you must be thinking: "How could this be a guy that Moneyball forgot? He's wearing an Oakland A's uniform, for christ's sake!"

And that's part of the mystique behind this story: Esteban German was in full swing in the A's minor league system when Moneyball came out and when the Moneyball front office was operating the team.

They either a) thought he wasn't going to make it in the bigs or b) overlooked him.

Hard to believe that they overlooked him after you see his numbers, so we'll dig into the scouting reports afterward to see what's going on here.

Esteban Makes His Case

Let's dig right into the numbers to see what type of player "the Germ" was back in his minor-league days with the A's:

Esteban German stats

He's a burner and he gets on base—that much is clear. He managed to walk 102 times as a 20-year old in 1999, which is impressive. He adjusted to each new level and capped his five-year run to the majors with a pretty good year at AAA, where he walked more times than he struck out—something he hadn't done before.

That's pretty nice progress.

The Up and Down Era



Here's where you'll see a lot of prospects get "forgotten." They dominate at the AAA level, get called up for a few ABs, and after a few seasons people start to wonder "Wasn't this guy supposed to be good?" Well, German proved that AAA was no longer a challenge to him during these three years, especially with his 2005 season.

As you'll see, he's no longer with the A's at that point—he became a free agent and signed with Texas.

Take a minute and appreciate what Texas has in this guy right now: a 26-year-old 2B/3B that can steal a base at will and get on base at a very healthy clip. He can't hit homeruns, but that's OK. This guy could be your prototypical leadoff guy—all for around $300,000.

But take a look at who Texas has on the team in 2005: Hank Blalock at 3B and Alfonso Soriano at 2B. So Esteban German gets traded to the one place where you're pretty sure he'll get a chance to start: the Royals.

Esteban Makes his First Million



Finally, Esteban German gets his shot to stick with a big-league team—even if it is the Royals. Does he get a chance to start right away? Of course not, the Royals have Mark Grudzielanek at 2B and Mark Teahen at 3B.

Anyway, over the course of three seasons with the Royals, German became a pretty solid, reliable guy off the bench. He even started hitting with a little more pop. His steals are down and his walks aren't as impressive, but these are small samples.

In 2008, German made a salary of $1,000,000 for the first time. Go German!

Oh and by the way, this isn't a case where the numbers look great and the scouts think he sucks—the scouts liked what they saw.

Where is he Today?

Where else but in the minor leagues? At the start of the 2009 season, the Royals released him to make room for the Juan Cruz signing. And then the Cubs picked him up in spring training, which was pretty cool because I thought I'd get to see him play quite a bit. And you can always use a burner with plate patience on the bench.

But for naught—he was released and then signed by Texas. Here's what the 31-year-old German has been doing at AAA Oklahoma:



Esteban German may not be Otis Nixon out there, but he's definitely got the speed and ability to steal his fair share of bases—especially because he's so good at getting on base.

My verdict? This guy should get a chance to start somewhere. Maybe the Marlins should look into it, their 2B and 3B situations aren't looking so hot right now with Dan Uggla and Emilio Bonifacio struggling.

German could turn out to be a nifty little player somewhere close to what Chone Figgins does with the Angels.

I pull for these kinds of guys because their numbers show they can play at the big-league level. But with German it's different because he isn't a power hitter. He's a small ball kind of guy, which is kind of endearing. If you like to root for the underdog like I do, he's your guy.

And also, he comes off real genuine and humble—even in Spanish interviews. Which is more than we can say for Sammy "the Douche" Sosa.

Esteban, I salute you. Godspeed.

Why Homeruns are so Important



OBP is obviously one of my favorite statistics. I loved Moneyball and I still can't figure out why so many MLB managers refuse to admit how important it is in measuring how good a player is.

But is OBP the most important statistic out there?

It depends.

If you're talking about comparing one player to another, I'd probably say yes—OBP is the best way of comparing two players. But is it the end all be all of stats?

Nope. Homeruns are.

Before you get your panties all in a bunch over sounding like a steroid-munching, ignorant fan that digs the long ball, let me explain.

Baseball is about winning. You win by scoring more runs than the other team. Scoring more runs, therefore, is the most important part of the game. So if you can do something to create a run all by yourself—and do that a lot—then you're very valuable.

Enter the homerun. Hitting a homerun means you're creating a run and an RBI in one swing. Granted, getting on base is the first step in scoring a run, but getting a homerun is an even faster way of getting on and getting in.

Ideally, you have a guy like Albert Pujols that hits tons of homeruns (37 last year) and has a high OBP (.462 last year), but if you had to place value on a player, you have to give the homerun its due.

In terms of pure statistics relative to winning ballgames, there's nothing that can compare to it. Let's take a look at the top ten players for the two categories last year.



Ideally, you have a guy on both lists, which makes Manny and Albert the most valuable players. But take a good look, would you rather have Chipper Jones or Ryan Howard (age issues aside)? Who brings more value to your team, Joe Mauer or Ryan Braun?

These are the questions we are faced with, people. Go forth and answer them.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Why do the Cubs Suck at Developing Position Players?


The inimitable Tuffy Rhodes

Pop quiz, hot shot: name a position player that came up through the Cubs' minor league system and went on to become a superstar.

For the sake of this discussion, let's leave Geovany Soto out of it. He had a great rookie year, but it's too early to tell if we can really rank him up there in superstar land—especially with the numbers he's putting up right now.

With the draft going down this week, here's what the Tribune had to say about the Cubs' farms system's ability to produce good position players:

Geovany Soto had a breakthrough season last year, earning National League Rookie of the Year honors, but has regressed in '09. Micah Hoffpauir is contributing in a limited role, while Jake Fox, recently called up after tearing up the Pacific Coast League, can't find his way into the Cubs' lineup. Ryan Theriot has been consistent at short but lacks the dominant offensive numbers to make him an impact player. At this point, it appears that the top position player drafted by the Cubs in the last decade was an obscure catcher selected in the 38th round of the 2002 draft. That catcher turned out to be Randy Wells, now one of the most dominating rookie pitchers in the National League.Those names are kind of a stretch since Wells isn't "proven" by any means, and neither is Fox or Hoffpauir.
I'm looking for superstars, not just contributors or everyday players. So let's take a look at what the Cubs have done in the past and see how bad they've really been.

The Candidates
We can't go back more than 30 years because I wasn't alive and going that far back bores me. So we'll start off at an arbitrary point of my own choosing: the Shawon Dunston era. He'll be our Jesus and our discussion will be limited exclusively to AD (Año Domini or After Dunston).

Was Dunston a superstar? In Chicago he certainly was, but a career .269 hitter (.296 OBP) with two All-Star appearances and no gold gloves (blame the Wizard of Oz for that) does not a superstar make.

I started by listing some recognizable names that came up through the Cubs system like Dwight Smith (fail), Damon Berryhill, Rich Amaral, Dave Martinez, Doug Dascenzo, Mark Grace, Joe Girardi, Doug Glanville, Eric Hinske, and Brendan Harris.

The only guy out of that bunch that deserves to be highlighted is Mark Grace. Not only because I have a man crush on the dude's swing, but because his numbers warrant it:


Gracey also won four gold gloves and was an All Star three times.

But what about Joe Girardi and Ryne Sandberg? Well, Joe was all right and a great fixture in Chicago, but he wasn't a superstar. And as for Ryno, he was actually drafted by the Phillies and got traded to the Cubs with Larry Bowa for Ivan DeJesus. So that's a no go.

Mark Grace...that's it.

Well, maybe there are some guys in the minor leagues that might develop into superstars.

Potential Candidates

The first name you'll hear in this argument is Josh Vitters, as you can see from this Tribune article that calls him "the 3rd basemen of the future." He's also been ranked as the Cubs top prospect by Baseball America. How's the 19-year old doing?



He's absolutely killing the ball right now, the only thing that's worrisome is his BB/K ratio. That's not very many walks, although the scouts are saying that's because he's not missing any balls right now. If the pitchers throw a strike, he's nailing it. But what about all those strikeouts then?

Then we have OF Tyler Colvin, the top pick of the 2007 draft. I think I've said all I need to say about him. Suffice to say I don't think he'll amount to superstar material.

The only other guy I would mention is Tony Thomas, I guy I started following right after he was drafted in 2007. At the time I saw him as a #1 or #2 hitter: he could hit, draw a walk, and had some speed. Lately his power seems to be coming around and he isn't walking as much. Still, he's about the most exciting thing going in the system in terms of position players besides Vitters:


This is what passes for "exciting" these days

Why the Cubs Suck

A friend of mine keeps trying to lay the blame on "The Cubs" or "Cubs management." But personnel has changed over the years so you can't really blame a specific group of people.

Can you blame Jim Hendry? He's been with the cubs since 1995 and was in a real position of leadership since 2001. Is this just a case of bad luck or a bad philosophy of developing/drafting players?

I think it comes down to philosophy. What's the Cubs' philosophy when it comes to drafting and developing players? Is there one? The Rangers pitchers are all about eliminating pitch counts and getting them to throw more. The A's have always been about plate discipline. The Braves are about producing studs—plain and simple.

The Cubs don't really have a direction. They're slowly creeping into the realm of the Yankees and Red Sox—large-market teams with too much money for their own good. Not enough of attention is being paid to the farm system, which was once so highly touted until those prospects flamed out (Hee Seop Choi, Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill, etc.).

They need some soul. Some direction. Some unified idea of what they want to do with position players to help them get better and become productive in the big leagues. Once they lay down a sensible plan, then they'll be able to give this another shot.

Until then I'll keep waiting for Josh Vitters and Tony Thomas to bring a little respectability to the farm.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

MLB Draft: Cubs Mess Up Again

So the first round of the draft was yesterday and the Cubs took college OF Brett Jackson, who looks like he might be a decent center fielder. But "might" and "decent" isn't very exciting way to describe your first pick in the draft. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker has on him:

It's not a great Draft class for college bats, particularly in the outfield, so one with the athleticism Jackson has is bound to be noticed. He runs well on both sides of the ball, has a decent approach at the plate and plays a good center field right now. Some may see him as a tweener who isn't a leadoff hitter or a No. 3 type. If he gets bigger he will have to move to a corner, where how much power he actually has becomes a bigger question. He's got more value if he can stay in center, and the team that takes him may be hoping he can stay put. Click here for the video.
So he isn't a leadoff guy and he isn't a power guy, although he might get some power if he gets "bigger." But then he won't be a centerfielder anymore. So basically this guy is a blank slate with great athleticism. Hmmm, sounds awfully similar to another recent top pick: Tyler Colvin. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker had on him back in 2006:

He has a good hitting approach, though sometimes he's too aggressive. He hasn't shown much power, but there's room for growth there. He has enough speed to possibly stay in center.
Colvin's big problem, as everyone already knew before he signed, was his approach at the plate. Too many Ks and too few walks. In his minor-league career so far he's got 91 BB to 289 Ks, which is terrible. He's floundering at AA right now, which with those numbers is no surprise.

Why am I going aggro about this year's pick? Well, because Brett Jackson looks like Tyler Colvin Redux, and Tyler Colvin hasn't done jack. And quite frankly, it doesn't look like he will unless he pulls a Samardzija and starts to get better every time he gets promoted.

Have we not learned anything? Or are the Cubs just doomed to never develop another position player again? It doesn't matter if you think you develop or draft studs, the Cubs aren't going to do either with this pick.

Let's check out the stats from their final season in college:



Project Mr. Brett Jackson to a full season and he'll strike out around 180 times. For a guy with power that "might" develop, that's not good. Unless you're Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn, you're not allowed to strike out this much.

But that's not the main reason why I'm so upset about this pick. Take a look at who got picked RIGHT AFTER BRETT JACKSON: a kid named Tim Wheeler. Let's see what the Draft Tracker has to say about him:

Wheeler is a pretty advanced college hitter whose best assets are his ability to make contact and his speed. He should be the type who can hit at or near the top of a lineup with the potential to be a plus base-stealer. He uses his speed well in center and has the skills to stay there. Without much power, he probably won't be off the charts, but could be a very solid college draftee in June. Click here for the video.
So he's fast and can play center. Oh and he can hit at the top of the order. That's good to know. Not that many "maybes" in this guy's game. Let's see how his numbers compare:



Dear god! Why did we not pick this guy instead? Because he doesn't project to hit a ton of homeruns? He hit 18 to Brett Jackson's 8! Look at the young man's walks! His steals! His fielding percentage! ARGHHH!!!

What the hell is going on here?

I've been working on a post on how the Cubs suck at drafting/developing position players is so bad. So far in this year's draft they don't appear to be reversing the trend...

Note: Make sure to check out Baseball America's scouting report on all the first rounders. Jackson and Wheeler are at the bottom of the page.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Your Best Reliever Shouldn't be the Closer



It's the bottom of the seventh inning and you're facing runners on second and third with nobody out. The score is 4–2 them and this game puts you one step closer to clinching your division. Your starter has run out of gas and, as the manager slowly walks towards the mound, you wonder who he's going to put in the ballgame.

Who do you want him to call down from the pen? Wouldn't you want the best reliever on the team to come in and try to snuff out this rally?

Of course you do, but most managers don't do that. They've fallen into the trap of designated their best reliever as "the closer," and that guy doesn't come into the game until at least the 8th inning.

Which means you're putting a guy into the most crucial part of the game that, while be may be very good, isn't the best. Which I think is dumb.

The Carlos Marmol Effect

At the start of the 2009 season, Cubs manager Lou Piniella decided that Kevin Gregg would be the closer over the young flamethrower Carlos Marmol. A lot of Cub fans were upset because they thought (correctly, in my opinion) that Marmol was the better reliever. Therefore, he should be the closer.

Whatever Lou Piniella's reasons were for picking Gregg as the closer (and Marmol's occasional control problems probably had something to do with this), his decision allowed him to bring in Marmol whenever he wanted, which I thought was brilliant.

The downside, of course, is that Kevin Gregg is the closer. And he has not been very good. But I'd rather see him be "not very good" with nobody on base in the ninth inning than with runners on second and third and nobody out in the 7th.

The problem is Gregg is doing so poorly that he won't last as the closer and this whole experiment won't work. Pretty soon you'll be seeing Kevin Gregg (or Angel Guzman) coming into the toughest game situations in the 7th inning instead of Marmol.

Which just goes to show you how scared MLB teams are to try something new, regardless of how much sense it makes.

Image by joyosity

Are Superstars Drafted or Developed?

The draft is a time of expectations and excitement. Will a top pick pay off or not? Will a late rounder pull a Mike Piazza to defy all odds and prove scouts wrong? And what role will Boras play in the future of the game this year?

The Cubs are a great example—they've been absolutely terrible at producing position players that turn out to be great ML players (more on that another time). They've developed their share of pitchers, but they've had a hard time with position players. Why is that? Is it bad drafting or bad developing?

Great Players Are Drafted

This is probably what most people think. You draft a great player because he's going to be great, regardless of what team picks him. Some players don't need any help to become superstars. Sure, they're in the minority, but they exist.

These guys dominate in college (or even high school) and zip through the minors with no problem. They are the naturals, the studs that will make it to the bigs no matter who drafts them or how crappy their system is.

Here we're talking about Mark Prior, Joe Mauer, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Grace, Albert Pujols, the Upton brothers, Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters (so say all the experts), and Stephen Strasburg (see how he compares to Prior).

And then you have guys that shot up to the Bigs without even stopping at the minor leagues:


From MLB.com.

As you can see, a lot of these guys didn't pan out. But the idea here is that some guys just don't need a lot of time or development to become studs. The Pirates could've drafted Albert Pujols and he would've been a star either way.

Great Players Are Developed

Adjusting to pro ball isn't easy. Most guys need to learn how to play a full season, how to adjust to better competition, how NOT to bee the star of their team, the grind of a season, the travel, being away from home, etc.

These are the guys that have a ton of talent, but need to have time to let it bloom and develop. This is where everybody else gets grouped.

If the right coaches and teammates are around him, it will happen sooner. If not, it may take a long time or it may not happen at all, which is kind of scary. Who knows, maybe there were some superstars that just couldn't' make it out of the Cubs system because of the way their program works (or doesn't work). You never know....

Look at Corey Patterson: everyone thought he'd be a stud. He was drafted third overall but the Cubs just couldn't wait and brought him up too soon...it hindered him and now he's scuffling with the Nationals' AAA team. The development just didn't happen the way it should've. The team and the player both share the blame.

The real answer is both, obviously. You need to be skilled (and lucky) at drafting the no-brainers but you also need to recognize which players have the potential to be good and if you're the right team that can develop that talent along with them. Are the Nationals the right fit for Strasburg? It doesn't matter because everyone thinks he's going to be one of these no-brainer picks.

Time will tell.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Is Stephen Strasburg Better Than Mark Prior?



There has been a ton of hype surrounding this year's most likely top pick in the MLB draft: Stephen Strasburg. This guy's getting more hype than Mark Prior. With Prior, nobody was sure if he was even going to go first in the draft or not (he was the second pick because the Twins didn't want to spend too much money...they got Joe Mauer instead).

No such debate with this kid—the Nationals say they're going to pay whatever it takes to get him. That's how good they think he's going to be.

Anyway, let's take a look at both these kids' final seasons in college to see how they stack up against each other:



Right off the bat, a few things jump off the page: Prior and Strasburg absolutely dominated their leagues. Prior has less walks but Strasburg has more Ks and allows fewer hits. When it comes to the all-important WHIP (walks + hits / IP), Strasburg has the edge.

Let's take a look at what they did the season before the hype began:



Prior had an OK year while Strasburg flat-out dominated. I don't know that this "proves" anything about Strasburg being better than Prior, but it does show that he's been really really good for more than just one college season.

And let's not forget that Prior hasn't pitched in years...he may never pitch again for all we know. So you never know when it comes to this stuff.

So all the hype and money he's going to get is only going to prove itself as time goes on. For the sake of the Nationals and their fans, I sure hope they get their money's worth.

Your move, Boras.

Image from More Hardball

Steve Stone is the Best



I grew up watching the Cubs on WGN, and other than the occasional Braves game on TBS, that was pretty much all the baseball I watched. So I just assumed that every team had announcers that were as good at Steve Stone and Harry Caray.

Harry is gone, but Steve is back. After a little drama with the Cubs, he left the team, which I think ranks right behind letting Greg Maddux go. This guy was amazing to listen to. He would say stuff like, "Now, what Trachsel wants to do here is throw him an inside fastball now that he's attacked him away with the off-speed stuff. With the swing this guy has, the best he'll do with a well-located fastball is pop it up to the third baseman."

And wouldn't you know it, the pitcher and the hitter would both obey his command. It was creepy to watch.

The other day I was watching some of the White Sox game (I'm not one of those Chicago fans that sees the "other" team as if they should be wiped out) and it was great to hear Steve in front of the mic again.

It's not the same as when he covered the Cubs, but man it brought back some memories. He's as good as ever.

I consider myself lucky to have watched Michael Jordan play basketball. I consider myself lucky to be able to watch Lebron James. And everyone should at least catch a game or two of Steve Stone and his play-by-play before he decides to hang'em up.

It's well worth it.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Ironic Baseball Headline from ESPN

Jerry Crasnick's ironic headline about OBP

Nowadays...really?

Thursday, June 4, 2009

The Three Cuban Musketeers

CubaEncuentro, a site dedicated to Cuban news, has a nice article giving a little background on three current Major League shortstops that came from Cuba: Yuniesky Betancourt (Mariners), Yunel Escobar (Braves), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox).

For those of you that can't read it because it's in Spanish, here are the highlights:

  • Neither one of these guys could get a starting job at short while playing in Cuba. There were veteran players with "name power" that would not be moved to give these guys a shot. Betacourt played 2B, Escobar played 3B, SS, and rode the pine. And Alexei played all outfield positions and even served as a kind of utility player in the infield. All of them are current ML starters at the SS position.
  • They all made around $432 a month down there.
  • Changing teams down there isn't as simple as you'd think, so they couldn't just switch teams to go to one that allowed them to start at SS. You could have three, great shortstops and you would have to play some of them out of position. Hmmm...sounds like the Dodgers outfield situation.
The crazy thing is how much these guys make now and how good they are at their position: Ramirez now makes around $100,000 per month, Escobar is at around $35,000 per month, and Betacourt makes around $192,000 per month.

And they get to start at the position they love/excel at.

So all politics and family issues aside, it's no wonder coming to the US is such an appetizing decision. It's amazing that more players don't try to come over more often.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Why OBP is so Important

So after re-reading my last post, I realized that I relied a lot OBP as a statistic, but I didn't really give non-stat heads a good explanations of what that number means, why it's so important, and why it helped make my point so artfully and eloquently.

And since I'll be using OBP a lot on this site, I figured I'd write something up to be clear and get everyone up to speed.

What it Means

OBP stands for On-Base Percentage and it works kind of like batting average does. Instead of just counting hits, however, it counts anytime you reach base, whether it's by getting a hit, drawing a walk, or getting hit by a pitch.

You also count walks, hit by pitches, and sacrifices in your at bats, which you normally don't do to calculate batting average.



What it Tells You

If batting average tells you how good a hitter is at getting hits, then OBP tells you how good a hitter is at getting on base.

Why It's So Important

Sounds like a pretty puny stat, doesn't it? Well, that's because the definition doesn't tell you everything you need to know.

A hitter with a higher OBP draws more walks. A hitter that draws more walks has certain valuable qualities that tend to make him a better hitter:
  1. Patience: Not afraid to see a pitch or two or go deep into the count. Some guys hate getting into two-strike counts for fear of striking out (Corey Patterson must live in a world of fear), but if you're patient you don't mind it at all. It means you see more pitches and work the count more, which leads to...
  2. Selectivity: Selectivity means a player will mostly swing at pitches he can effectively hit (Vladimir Guerrero's piñata swing falls into the "anti-selectivity" category). This is good because it maximizes the odds of making solid contact and doing something good with the ball. Fastball down the middle? Hammer it.
  3. Control of the strike zone: This one relates to #2 and #1. Control of the strike zone means you know what's a strike and what isn't. It means you're more likely to let pitcher's pitches that are balls go by and not let strikes go by if they might be strike three. Nasty cutter inside? Let it go.
What Makes a Good OBP?

A .300 average is generally equated with good hitters. OBP has its own bar, only there are two of them because OBP on its own matters less than it does compared to a player's AVG:

1. A .400 OBP generally means you have a hitter that's really good at drawing walks.



2. If a hitter has a +100-point differential between his average and his OBP, that's also a very good sign. So if a guy hits .260 and has a .360 OBP that's an indicator that he's got a pretty good eye. If a hitter has a .240 AVG and a .380 OBP it means he's a pretty lame hitter but has outstanding patience, selectivity, and control of the strike zone.

Adam Dunn and Jack Cust are good examples of OK hitters with really good OBP differentials:



The interesting thing is that you rarely see players with a bad average and a high OBP. Why? Because if you have the qualities to draw a lot of walks, they will help make you a better hitter and in theory you won't be hitting .260.

And that's why OBP is such a powerful number—it tells you what a hitter has done statistically but it also shows you how patient he is, how selective he is, and the type of approach he has at the plate.

That one number can tell you all of that is pretty amazing.

Roberto Petagine: The Man That Moneyball Forgot

Señor Gammons absolutely loved reading Moneyball. It opened my eyes to a whole new way of looking at the game. It shone new light on how valuable it was to walk, giving us a new metric with which to judge baseball players: OBP.

Ever since I read that book, I've felt like someone who knows this secret about what makes a player valuable. It's a secret that has still not gained full traction in the big leagues. You hear stupid crap like Dusty Baker saying walks "clog up the bases" and that's when you realize Major League Baseball is a stubborn beast that doesn't take to new ideas very well.

One of my favorite things about Moneyball was that it gave fans like me an easy way to find undervalued players and make the case that they should be given a shot.

I'm not talking about AAAA players like Julio Zuleta (who went to Japan and became a star) that couldn't draw a walk. I'm talking about players Billy Beane himself would look at and say, "Hmmm, this guy is worth a second look."

Two players always come to mind: Esteban German and Roberto Petagine. I'll save the Esteban German story for another day (it's a good one and it isn't over yet), but today is Roberto Petagine's day.

In honor of his 38th birthday, I give you the story behind a player I think could've been a star in the Major Leagues but was ahead of his time.

I give you The Ballad of Roberto Petagine.



The Minors

You know Roberto Petagine hasn't been given the respect he deserves when you realize that most websites list his place of birth as Nueva Esparta, Venezuela. Some have it listed as Nueva Esparita, Venezuela, and one even has him born in the Dominican.

All mistakes. A little digging around on some Spanish websites shows he was born in the good ol' US of A before moving to Venezuela, where his parents are from and where he played ball.

They can't even get his birthplace right.

Anyway, he got his start in the Houston Astros' system, where he made it to triple-A as a 23-year old.

His numbers:


Just looking at those numbers (see Why OBP is So Important for the scoop on OBP), I'd be thrilled to have a 23-year-old first baseman making that kind of progress through my minor-league system. His walk rate was down at AAA, but that's understandable. Look at his walk rate and homerun count: he's a good prospect. The true test is how he would do repeating AAA or during his first taste of the Bigs.

Over the next four years, he bounced around from team to team and from the Majors to triple-A:



Most of his big league at bats were in pinch-hitting situations that didn't really give him a chance to prove what he could do. Out of his 185 games over those four years, only 60 came as a starter. That means he started an average of 15 games per season—that's not much of a chance.

He is now 27 years old and has nothing left to prove in the minors. He's already made three things clear:
  1. He has tons of power
  2. He draws tons of walks
  3. He's not getting a shot
Sound familiar? We've seen this before, and very recently too. Jack Cust was Roberto Petagine until he was plucked from relative obscurity (minor-league stat freaks like myself knew about him the whole time) and thrust into the big leagues, where he eventually became an everyday major leaguer. But for the longest time, it looked like Jack Cust would never get a shot either.

Who picked him up? Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland A's. Señor Moneyball himself.

Even the New York Times had to write a little something on his story, it was just too good to pass up. For a while there, Jack Cust was on the tip of everybody's tongue.

Take a look at how the two players' career minor-league numbers stack up:



Cust draws a ridiculous amount of walks, but Petagine has a better average and doesn't strike out nearly as often, and Cust played in way more games, so keep that in mind. So what was it that scouts were looking at when they saw him play and decided not to give him a full shot?

The Scouting Reports



From here:

Strengths: Petagine handles himself like the veteran he is and is a smart hitter that has the physical skills to be effective versus ML pitching. Has a natural left-hander's swing and can spray the ball enough to take away a pitcher's gameplan.

Had trouble with the hard stuff as a younger player but has improved his pitch recognition over the years and learned how to attack his pitch while playing in Japan.

Can field at first, is better than Sexson, and is a good bet to outperform Carl Everett at the plate while having some value defensively.

Weaknesses: At 34, Petagine knows what he is and what he can and can't do on the field. He can fall in love with deep counts and let good, hittable pitches go by and can be quite streaky.

He doesn't run that well, but isn't a slug, either. At a slightly advanced age he possesses slightly below average speed.

And from here:
Much-traveled bat. ... Straight-up, open stance. ... Works counts, takes walks. ... Likes to extend his arms. ... Causes damage to right-center and left-center. ... Has some holes on the inner part of the plate. ... Steady defensively. ... Lacks range, but displays good hands and footwork around the bag.
And from John Sickels' sweet writeup on Petagine:
Although many scouts consider him a Quadruple-A player, the fact is that he proved he could dominate the Triple-A level at the age of 25, with power, walks, and a low strikeout rate for a guy who hits home runs. 307 big-league at-bats over 5 different seasons, spread out mostly in pinch-hitting duty, was hardly a fair test of his skills.
The only real reason I can see that kept him from getting a shot was that he had some holes in his swing and scouts figured major-league pitchers would exploit it (sounds like former Cub Hee Seop Choi to me). And that makes sense, but wouldn't you give him more than 307 irregular at bats over five scattered seasons to try to make an adjustment?

Give credit where credit is due, Petagine didn't hang around to find out. Or to complain. He took his game to Japan, where he was promised a starting role and some serious money. Like Julio Zuleta and so many other players before him, Petagine decided it was time to stop messing around and start making real money and playing every day.

At least someone could see the man could play.

In 1999, he said sayonara to the US and Ohio-gozaimasu to the Japanese big leagues.

The Gaijin Years

All you need to know about what Roberto Petagine did in Japan is this:




*From here.

During those six years in Japan, Petagine won three gold gloves, two homerun titles, one Central League MVP award, and over $24 million. The decision to go to Japan, in retrospect, was fantastic. He pretty much morphed into a David Ortiz type player over there, proving what he could do at a high level provided he was given the at-bats.

At the end of 2004, Petagine was 33 years old and drama ensued. His team demanded he take a 70% pay cut and his wife had a war of words with the team. That drama drove him back to the big leagues for one last shot.

This is where I got really excited: the latest Moneyball team, the Red Sox, signed him to a minor-league deal and it looked like he would finally get a shot. But of course he didn't. Instead, he was sent to AAA and put up some ridiculous numbers in Pawtucket:



And that, my friends, would be the last time we'd see Petagine put up his customary monster numbers on our shores.

Where in the World is Roberto Petagine Today?

As of today, 38-year-old Roberto Petagine is in Korea (the video earlier is from his play with the LG Twins), where he's hitting .421 with a .547 OBP. He's got 11 HRs and 34 RBIs, and that's only a quarter of the way through the season. He ranks second in HRs, RBIs, and batting average. Not bad for an old man that never got a shot. You know who's leading the league in HRs? Former Cub Hee Seop Choi. And by the way, he's making $375,000 in Korea. If you want to read more about his play in Korea, go here and here.

In Closing

Why should we care about Roberto Petagine's story? Because something so simple as OBP can show us the difference between a AAAA player like Julio Zuleta (who also became a stud in Japan, mind you) and a real talented player like Mr. Petagine.

If you can control the strike zone, get on base, and be selective, you bring value to every at bat. And the fact that he had so much power makes it ever weirded that he didn't get a shot. Nowadays you'll see all kinds of terrible hitters get starting jobs because they can hit homeruns when they don't strike out (Jeff Francoeur, anyone?).

The sad part is that with all the money put into scouting and all the complaining fans without a good farm system (I'm looking at you, Cubbies), players like Petagine still slip through the system without getting a real opportunity.

Moneyball has done a lot for the game, but the game still hasn't absorbed all the knowledge Michael Lewis dropped on it.

Happy Birthday, Roberto Petagine. Happy freakin' birthday.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Dayan Viciedo Should Go Into Politics

Living in Chicago, I've always been intrigued with the Dayan Viciedo story, the 19-year-old kid from Cuba that was given a shot at the White Sox 3B job in spring training.

Since the White Sox were getting rid of Joe Crede and his bad back and Josh Fields had lost a little bit of his luster the year before, Viciedo and his mysterious scouting reports started to fuel rumors that he could step right into the Bigs and take over the 3B spot.

Baseball America had this to say:
Viciedo has excellent power and hitting ability, however, with one scout comparing him to Giants prospect Angel Villalona. He slugged over .500 two of the last three seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, its top-level league, hitting 14 homers in 2005-2006—as a 16-year-old—in his best season.

His Villa Clara manager, former national team star Victor Mesa, told Cuba’s Granma news in 2006 that Viciedo has “a good arm and tremendous power. He’s got excellent technique, but at the same time is surprisingly calm for his young age and very secure in defense.”
Regardless of how big/chunky he was back then, being that he was only 19 and the Sox were willing to pay him $11 million for four years, everyone was pretty excited.

Here's a video that shows him working out right around the time he signed the deal:



He looks huge, doesn't he? The glove looks tiny in his hand and the one comment by his trainer Jorge Toca is kind of ridiculous:

He has all the talent to make it to the Major Leagues and become the first Cuban player to hit 40 homeruns.

The other trainer is probably getting paid pretty well too:
He could be rookie of the year because of the way he works hard and his talent.
To top it all off, here are his stats from Cuba:

Dayan Viciedo Stats

Not bad, but not great. And who knows how a 19-year-old's stats from Cuba will translate to the bigs. Here's what he's done in AA so far this year:

In 47 games, he's hitting .260, .277 OBP, 3HRs, 5BB, 39Ks. Ouchy.

Regardless of whether or not he'll "make it," I still thought Viciedo was an interesting story. One worth digging a little deeper into, Señor Gammons style.

So I figured I'd unearth a few interviews, grab some quotes, and see what the kid is really like when he talks to the media in Spanish. After all, that's how we roll here.

And I did find some interviews, but as you'll see my project didn't gain much steam. The reason? Dayan Viciedo is a young, Cuban player—and young, Cuban players are well trained in the fine art of doublespeak.

This guy talks a better game than Rod Blagojevich.

Check out the steely look in his eyes:



Nothing can phase a 19-year-old kid with that look in his eyes. Now let's move on to some actual speaking.

In case you don't know Spanish, here's what you're missing:
I'm gonna give it my all, everything I've got. I talked to Alexei about Ozzie Guillen and the good thing is he gives players a chance.

And on and on he goes, spewing more and more classic baseball clichés without a care in the world. You'll notice his head move a couple times, but his shoulders never budge. Not sure if that's because he's as big as Jabba the Hut or because this kid just plain doesn't get razzled.

You ride an inflatable boat in a race for your life and see if a TV interview phases you any.

My conclusion? Dayan Viciedo may or may not make it in the Bigs. Alexei Ramirez got off to a slow start last year and then had a great season. This guy is 19, should have no problem with the media, and he's got a lot of tools.

He's so good that Señor Gammons couldn't even find a chink in his armor. This kid's definitely worth keeping an eye out, maybe one day he'll slip and some personality will finally come through.

What to do with Jake Fox?


Check our señor Fox's numbers at AAA Iowa over the past 40 games: he's hitting .423 with a .503 OBP and he's already hit 17 HRs and driven in 50 RBIs. He's also scored 40 R in just 40 games.

How insane is that? I love me a good minor-league story, and this is one of the better ones. In fact, he's even getting some love from BaseballAmerica, reaching #11 on an old Prospect Hot Sheet.

Sweet.

But it doesn't do Jake any good to get all that buzz without a callup to the show. You've watched Bull Durham, you know it ain't fun being in the minors.

What can the Cubs do to take advantage of this monster surge of power?

Call him up: But where do you play him? Sure, he used to be a catcher, but that was a while ago. Now he's more of a 1B, and the Cubs already have Derek Lee and Micah Hoffpauir (another great minor-league story of persistence). So unless you want to put Soriano at 2B and shift the Hoff to LF, and then play Fox at 1B when Derek Lee is hitting into too many double plays, I just don't see it happening.

Trade him: Other teams' GMs aren't as stupid as you think. You can't just "trade him for a prospect" because his numbers look good—this isn't MLB '09: The Show. The best you could do is to send him to a struggling team with a struggling 1B and hope to get a decent reliever with a good arm that can't throw strikes. And that means Piniella will start kicking people around in the clubhouse. Maybe you trade him to the D-Backs to platoon with Chad Tracy or something.

The Real Jake Fox


Here's the thing about Jake Fox: he will not continue to hit like this. He will not hit over .400 at AAA or at the big-league level. Has he earned a shot at playing in the bigs? For sure. And it pains me to see guys like him, like Julio Zuleta, and Roberto Petagine never get a serious crack at a major league lineup.

But the reality is that he's in AAA for a reason—he doesn't have a position and he's a bit of a late bloomer. Now he just needs to get a little lucky to get his shot.

Then he'll have to prove it all over again once he does....