Monday, March 22, 2010

Three Reasons Why Starlin Castro Should Start at Double-A

I called it! Starlin Castro started the season in AA Tennessee. Good job Jim Hendry!



Cub fans that have been waiting for the team to produce a legit position prospect that doesn't suck are now hanging their hopes on the man with funkiest name since Esmailin "Esmokin" Caridad: slick-fielding shortstop Starlin Castro.

He was invited to spring training this year and hit .423 with a homerun and two doubles.

There was even talk that he could stick with the big club as a backup infielder. Some gun-jumpers even thought he should be handed the starting SS position and move Theriot to 2B.

Nonsense.

The Cubs made the right move sending him down to minor league camp, but they're eventually sending him to the wrong place: Starling Castro needs to start at double-A Tennessee, not in AAA Iowa.

Reason #1: He's 19 Years Old

Sure, he'll be 20 on Wednesday, but he's still too young: he's never had more than 400 ABs at any level of pro ball.

He had 196 ABs at Rookie ball (hit .311), 358 ABs in high-A ball (hit .302), and only 111 ABs at double-A, where he hit .288.

Look at all his numbers all you'll see he's only had 665 ABs! That's not nearly enough to send him to AAA. He did get another 101 ABs in the fall league (hit .376) but it still feels like a very thin road to the big leagues. Paper thin, in fact.

I don't see why we need him at AAA in 2010 when he's had so little experience.

Reason #2: Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, and Ronny Cedeño

We've been here before, folks. The next hot-shot prospect that's going to blow us all away and give us our own Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter to hang all our hopes on. I could rattle names all day long: Hee-Seop Choi, David Kelton, Kevin Orie, Eric Patterson, Brooks Kieschnick, etc.

The latest flavors of the day were Felix Pie and Corey Patterson. Corey is trying to catch on with the defensively minded Mariners, while Felix Pie is trying to earn some ABs over in Baltimore. Both of these guys were rushed up to the major leagues before they were ready.

Felix Pie was 22 years old but at least he had over 700ABs in AAA alone. Corey came up at age 20 after 900+ ABs (but none in AAA) and he was a total bust after his good half season before getting hurt.

Fans might not want to hear this after not having a position prospect that's any good for so long since Ryan Sandberg, Mark Grace, and Shawon Dunston—but players are like steaks: they need to be seasoned properly. Otherwise they choke...or something. Sure, ARod didn't hit a thing the first few times he was in the major leagues. But that was ARod—a once-in-a-lifetime player—and that was a different time. Nowadays players have to produce right away or they are replaced.

Once upon a time, shortstop was a position you wanted great defensive leadership out of. These days you better hit better than .250 or you're getting replaced with someone else, someone younger, someone with more hype.

And then we have the most apt comparison to Mr. Castro: Ronny Cedeño. These guys are mirror images of each other: slick-fielding shortstops that came out of nowhere and in one year fooled people they were going to amazing everyday players.

Ronny was 20 years old, hadn't hit better than .218 in any stop in the minors, and was regarded as having a pretty good glove. Then in AA (at age 21) he shocked the world and hit .279. That got the buzz machine started. The writers were convinced he was a top prospect and the future SS for he Cubs.

Then he got sent up to AAA the next year and hit .355 in 255 ABs. The hype machine was in full swing: Ronny was the man that was going to end the drought. Just goes to show you how thirsty we are when a season and a half is all it takes to get us fans believing that we've found our savior.

The next year he was handed the keys to the starting shortstop position and hit .245 in over 500 ABs. He was 23 years old. And that was the only chance he would get: from that season on people pegged him as either a bad player or a part-time player. These days, you don't get a second chance. Lucky for him, the Pirates suck bad enough that they're willing to give him the keys again this year for another shot. I love Ronny and I think he could really be a good player.

Check out this great story on Ronny Cedeño chronicling his whole second chance with the Pirates. The cliff-notes version is that he's lucky a team gave him another shot after he didn't perform for a whole season.

He is now 27 years old.

Reason #3: You, The Fan

Time for you to take responsibility in this whole fiasco. The biggest reason why Castro needs to start at double-A is you. You've already heard about him in spring training and now you want him up on the team. It's time to make a move, as you so often say. It's time to "see what he's got."

No, no, no.

You have no idea what you're talking about. The kid is 19 years old. Don't ruin him. Leaving him at triple-A gives fans the impression that he's almost ready. That a twisted ankle or bad stretch of play from Theriot means he gets to come up and play every day.

This is not how we should be thinking about this. Theriot is the starting shortstop. He has the experience and the track record. He is ready.

Start Castro at double-A—let him focus on getting sharper, better, readier. Starting him at triple-A gives off all the wrong messages: that he's ready, that he is close, that he should be starting today if not for Theriot's contract.

So Jim Hendry, I'm pleading with you: don't let the fans pressure you into another move like they've done so often before. Keep him away from the fans, away from the hype, and give this kid a chance to be the best player he can be.

Keep him away from us.