Sunday, July 17, 2011

Flashback: Brett Jackson vs. Tim Wheeler

A couple of years ago when the Cubs drafted Brett Jackson, I was pissed off because it looked like the wrong choice to make. The guy that got drafted right behind the Cubs, Tim Wheeler, looked like a waaaayyyy better prospect.

The scouting reports and the college stats said that, out of these two center fielders, Wheeler could actually wind up playing CF at the big-league level (Jackson was questionable) and had plus speed.

Jackson looked like he was just an OK player next to this guy.

Well, that was a couple of years ago. What have these two done in pro ball since then?

Brace Yourselves...It's not Good

Brett Jackson may be our best prospect, but his numbers pale in comparison to what Tim Wheeler has done.

Tim Wheeler

Brett Jackson

What do you see? I'll tell you what I see: one guy that does everything pretty well and another guy that does a couple of things really, really well.

Jackson looks like he can hit for average (this year not so much), but he has some speed, some power, and even though you can't see it here, he can play good defense.

Wheeler had a couple mediocre seasons in the minors but this year has blown up. At Double-A, he's shattered this image of a speed guy with no pop. He has 26 HRs in 90 games for a ridiculous .611 slugging percentage. He's hitting .300 for the first time as a pro, is getting on base at a healthy .382 clip, and even has 15 steals to boot (though he's been caught 9 times).

Was I right about Jackson? Should the Cubs have drafted Wheeler?

On the first question, no. I was wrong about both of these guys. Jackson is better than I thought and Wheeler is an enigma. I thought he was going to be a speed guy playing a good CF, and that is being put to the test this season. If he keeps hitting home runs at even a reduced rate than he is now, then the Cubs are going to regret this pick.

Jackson looks like he'll be a good ball player, but so far he hasn't shown that he can come up and be a star. Wheeler is on the same patch, but this season is pretty hard to ignore...it's pretty sick.

This is why I try to be as gently as I can when I rip the Cubs (or any other organization) for making horrible decisions picking players. It's a crap shoot. Unless you're talking about once-in-a-lifetime talent then there's no telling what might happen as players climb through the minors.

It's one of the things that makes baseball so different than any other sport: the difference between the college ranks and the pros is so wide that it's impossible to tell how a player from one level will do at the next.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Castro and Barney: Are They Really That Good?

The Cubs’ season has sucked so far in 2011, and after last night it doesn’t look like things are getting any better.

But all the analysts have all agreed on the few bright spots: Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Alfonso Soriano.

OK I’m kidding about Soriano. But the Tribune called Starlin Castro the MVP of the first half and Barney was designated the Rookie of the Year so far. Considering most of the other rookies on the team have been awful, Barney’s “award” is one of those de facto deals.

But I think we need to take a closer look at all the accolades these two are accumulating. But how good are they, really?

Starlin Castro

Castro managed to hit .300 last year as a 20-year old, which is pretty unbelievable. Granted, he only had 463 at bats, but that’s still very impressive. And so far this season, he’s hitting .304.

Other than his average, how productive has Castro been? His slugging percentage last year was a dismal .408 since he hit just three homeruns. He did crank out 31 doubles, so the power could be dormant and may develop as he gets older and starts to get some facial hair.

Another positive: he’s slugging way better this season (.423) and already has 24 doubles, 8 triples (tied for 2nd in the NL), and two homeruns. So he’s getting better.

But still...what we’re looking at is a young guy who is developing. If he continues to hit .300 and develop his power, we’re looking at a guy that could put up some 15-20 homeruns while playing an also developing shorstop.

This is a good thing, but it’s not like we can just slot him into the 3 hole and wave goodbye to Aramis and Soriano. Starlin is not going to be the cleanup hitter on this team, and that’s something to think about as the veterans get older and we realize we have no replacement.

One thing that worries me about Castro is his on-base percentage. It looks mediocre at .332, but that’s because his average is so high. Castro has just 16 walks to his 48 strikeouts, which pans out to a 32/96 BB/K ratio. If he can hit .300 and keep that ratio that would be pretty impressive, but I’d like to see him control the zone a little better.

All in all, we have a very good young player whose ceiling is very high. But he doesn’t seem to bring any one talent that is considered an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scales. Not a bad thing, just something a lot of people have ignored because they see him as the best player on the team. I just want to remind people that, if he’s the best player on the team, then we need to acquire some other players ASAP.

Darwin Barney

Here’s the thing about Barney: the reason why so many people think he’s so god and they like him so much is because nobody expected anything from him.

He was branded as a defensive/bench player long ago and the fact that stole the job in spring training means he stole his way into all our underdog rooting, masochistic Cub-fan hearts.

But what has he done this year?

.303 AVG, .333 OBP, .370 SLG

He’s played some very good defense at 2B and that’s the main reason he’s kept the job over Blake DeWitt, who has some pop in the bat.

Pop is not something you’d find in Barney’s bat, as evidenced by that .370 slugging percentage. He has 1 homer and 11 doubles in what’s essentially been half a season.

And yes, I’m harping on OBP again: Barney’s is OK because his average has been good, but his BB/K ratio is pretty bad. It’s not Corey Patterson territory but it’s close:

10 BB and 33 Ks.

I like his inside-out swing and the way he makes contact with the ball, but unless he progresses a ton and somehow shows he can do more that what he’s done, what we’re looking at here is the second coming of Ryan Theriot with less speed and a worse OBP.

Harsh for a rookie, I know, but there’s a reason why no one ever saw him as a regular.

The Other Young Guys

I know some people out there want to see what the young guys can do and blow this season up. Bring up Brett Jackson, put Colvin in left every day, and get rid of all the aging veterans.

I like the plan.

But how will you replace the power Aramis and Peña bring? And yes, even Soriano? Colvin might hit 30 in the bigs, but his strike-zone discipline is horrible. He’s in Soriano territory.

The Gist

We have some nice, young players on the team. Starlin Castro is our best player. But we’re sorely lacking in young, premium power and in strike-zone discipline.

Without that, we’ll always have to rely on the free-agent market for help. In this league, in this day in age, you can’t win without power, and Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney will not provide that.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Can Ichiro Really Hit 40 Homeruns? Should He?



A very provocative story on Yahoo Sports yesterday about how Ichiro is so "set in his ways" that he won't change his hitting style even though his hitting style has him hitting a paltry (for Ichiro, anyway) .279.

The author's argument is built around Ichiro's legendary but hidden power. Many a fan has enjoyed Ichiro's batting practice displays of power, where he supposedly hits ball after ball deep into the stands.

It's the reason why so many have implored the 5'11, 172-pound Ichiro to enter the home run derby.

Alas, it hasn't happened, and that's because Ichiro doesn't believe that's the player he is. He was taught the fundamentals of hitting and he believes he should be a player with 200 hits that hits the ball where it's hit.

Batting average is his ultimate judge, and right now that judge things he sucks (he's a career .329 hitter).

But the article makes a few assumptions that are just plain wrong:
  • Ichiro can hit home runs at will
  • Ichiro can sacrifice some batting average in exchange for "trying" to hit home runs and succeed
  • Hitting home runs in BP says something about your ability to hit home runs against MLB pitching
  • Ichiro's speed is declining and that's why he isn't hitting .300
Could Ichiro hit "more" home runs that he typically does? Sure, he only averages about eight per season. But this idea that he can hit home runs at will because his BP sessions are so amazing is ridiculous.

Would I like to see him try? Would I be thrilled to see Ichiro torment pitchers and put up a .270, 30 HR, 100 RBI line?

You bet your ass I would...it would be the most awesome "flip" of a switch since Brady Anderson hit 50 in 1996 and Jose Bautista turned into Albert Pujols in 2010.

Will it happen?

Probably not.

If it were true, Ichiro wouldn't be hitting .279 right now.

For an even harsher look at the Yahoo Article, check out this guy's rant.