Flashback: Brett Jackson vs. Tim Wheeler

A couple of years ago when the Cubs drafted Brett Jackson, I was pissed off because it looked like the wrong choice to make. The guy that got drafted right behind the Cubs, Tim Wheeler, looked like a waaaayyyy better prospect.

The scouting reports and the college stats said that, out of these two center fielders, Wheeler could actually wind up playing CF at the big-league level (Jackson was questionable) and had plus speed.

Jackson looked like he was just an OK player next to this guy.

Well, that was a couple of years ago. What have these two done in pro ball since then?

Brace Yourselves...It's not Good

Brett Jackson may be our best prospect, but his numbers pale in comparison to what Tim Wheeler has done.

Tim Wheeler

Brett Jackson

What do you see? I'll tell you what I see: one guy that does everything pretty well and another guy that does a couple of things really, really well.

Jackson looks like he can hit for average (this year not so much), but he has some speed, some power, and even though you can't see it here, he can play good defense.

Wheeler had a couple mediocre seasons in the minors but this year has blown up. At Double-A, he's shattered this image of a speed guy with no pop. He has 26 HRs in 90 games for a ridiculous .611 slugging percentage. He's hitting .300 for the first time as a pro, is getting on base at a healthy .382 clip, and even has 15 steals to boot (though he's been caught 9 times).

Was I right about Jackson? Should the Cubs have drafted Wheeler?

On the first question, no. I was wrong about both of these guys. Jackson is better than I thought and Wheeler is an enigma. I thought he was going to be a speed guy playing a good CF, and that is being put to the test this season. If he keeps hitting home runs at even a reduced rate than he is now, then the Cubs are going to regret this pick.

Jackson looks like he'll be a good ball player, but so far he hasn't shown that he can come up and be a star. Wheeler is on the same patch, but this season is pretty hard to ignore...it's pretty sick.

This is why I try to be as gently as I can when I rip the Cubs (or any other organization) for making horrible decisions picking players. It's a crap shoot. Unless you're talking about once-in-a-lifetime talent then there's no telling what might happen as players climb through the minors.

It's one of the things that makes baseball so different than any other sport: the difference between the college ranks and the pros is so wide that it's impossible to tell how a player from one level will do at the next.

MLB Draft: Cubs Mess Up Again

So the first round of the draft was yesterday and the Cubs took college OF Brett Jackson, who looks like he might be a decent center fielder. But "might" and "decent" isn't very exciting way to describe your first pick in the draft. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker has on him:

It's not a great Draft class for college bats, particularly in the outfield, so one with the athleticism Jackson has is bound to be noticed. He runs well on both sides of the ball, has a decent approach at the plate and plays a good center field right now. Some may see him as a tweener who isn't a leadoff hitter or a No. 3 type. If he gets bigger he will have to move to a corner, where how much power he actually has becomes a bigger question. He's got more value if he can stay in center, and the team that takes him may be hoping he can stay put. Click here for the video.

So he isn't a leadoff guy and he isn't a power guy, although he might get some power if he gets "bigger." But then he won't be a centerfielder anymore. So basically this guy is a blank slate with great athleticism. Hmmm, sounds awfully similar to another recent top pick: Tyler Colvin. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker had on him back in 2006:

He has a good hitting approach, though sometimes he's too aggressive. He hasn't shown much power, but there's room for growth there. He has enough speed to possibly stay in center.

Colvin's big problem, as everyone already knew before he signed, was his approach at the plate. Too many Ks and too few walks. In his minor-league career so far he's got 91 BB to 289 Ks, which is terrible. He's floundering at AA right now, which with those numbers is no surprise.

Why am I going aggro about this year's pick? Well, because Brett Jackson looks like Tyler Colvin Redux, and Tyler Colvin hasn't done jack. And quite frankly, it doesn't look like he will unless he pulls a Samardzija and starts to get better every time he gets promoted.

Have we not learned anything? Or are the Cubs just doomed to never develop another position player again? It doesn't matter if you think you develop or draft studs, the Cubs aren't going to do either with this pick.

Let's check out the stats from their final season in college:



Project Mr. Brett Jackson to a full season and he'll strike out around 180 times. For a guy with power that "might" develop, that's not good. Unless you're Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn, you're not allowed to strike out this much.

But that's not the main reason why I'm so upset about this pick. Take a look at who got picked RIGHT AFTER BRETT JACKSON: a kid named Tim Wheeler. Let's see what the Draft Tracker has to say about him:

Wheeler is a pretty advanced college hitter whose best assets are his ability to make contact and his speed. He should be the type who can hit at or near the top of a lineup with the potential to be a plus base-stealer. He uses his speed well in center and has the skills to stay there. Without much power, he probably won't be off the charts, but could be a very solid college draftee in June. Click here for the video.

So he's fast and can play center. Oh and he can hit at the top of the order. That's good to know. Not that many "maybes" in this guy's game. Let's see how his numbers compare:



Dear god! Why did we not pick this guy instead? Because he doesn't project to hit a ton of homeruns? He hit 18 to Brett Jackson's 8! Look at the young man's walks! His steals! His fielding percentage! ARGHHH!!!

What the hell is going on here?

I've been working on a post on how the Cubs suck at drafting/developing position players is so bad. So far in this year's draft they don't appear to be reversing the trend...

Note: Make sure to check out Baseball America's scouting report on all the first rounders. Jackson and Wheeler are at the bottom of the page.