Are Superstars Drafted or Developed?

The draft is a time of expectations and excitement. Will a top pick pay off or not? Will a late rounder pull a Mike Piazza to defy all odds and prove scouts wrong? And what role will Boras play in the future of the game this year?

The Cubs are a great example—they've been absolutely terrible at producing position players that turn out to be great ML players (more on that another time). They've developed their share of pitchers, but they've had a hard time with position players. Why is that? Is it bad drafting or bad developing?

Great Players Are Drafted

This is probably what most people think. You draft a great player because he's going to be great, regardless of what team picks him. Some players don't need any help to become superstars. Sure, they're in the minority, but they exist.

These guys dominate in college (or even high school) and zip through the minors with no problem. They are the naturals, the studs that will make it to the bigs no matter who drafts them or how crappy their system is.

Here we're talking about Mark Prior, Joe Mauer, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Grace, Albert Pujols, the Upton brothers, Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters (so say all the experts), and Stephen Strasburg (see how he compares to Prior).

And then you have guys that shot up to the Bigs without even stopping at the minor leagues:


From MLB.com.

As you can see, a lot of these guys didn't pan out. But the idea here is that some guys just don't need a lot of time or development to become studs. The Pirates could've drafted Albert Pujols and he would've been a star either way.

Great Players Are Developed

Adjusting to pro ball isn't easy. Most guys need to learn how to play a full season, how to adjust to better competition, how NOT to bee the star of their team, the grind of a season, the travel, being away from home, etc.

These are the guys that have a ton of talent, but need to have time to let it bloom and develop. This is where everybody else gets grouped.

If the right coaches and teammates are around him, it will happen sooner. If not, it may take a long time or it may not happen at all, which is kind of scary. Who knows, maybe there were some superstars that just couldn't' make it out of the Cubs system because of the way their program works (or doesn't work). You never know....

Look at Corey Patterson: everyone thought he'd be a stud. He was drafted third overall but the Cubs just couldn't wait and brought him up too soon...it hindered him and now he's scuffling with the Nationals' AAA team. The development just didn't happen the way it should've. The team and the player both share the blame.

The real answer is both, obviously. You need to be skilled (and lucky) at drafting the no-brainers but you also need to recognize which players have the potential to be good and if you're the right team that can develop that talent along with them. Are the Nationals the right fit for Strasburg? It doesn't matter because everyone thinks he's going to be one of these no-brainer picks.

Time will tell.