Major League Baseball players say the craziest things! But sometimes only to hispanic reporters and only in their native Spanish. Senor Gammons breaks it all down so you know what's what. And he also writes about baseball in general.
Just finished reading this awesome piece in the New York Times about this new system of cameras that is being installed in ballparks across the country. They will be able to measure every batted ball, track the fielders chasing after it, and even see how efficiently baserunners are rounding the bases.
In other words...wow. Defense has long been the one unquantifiable part of the game, so I'm sure scouts around the country are like, "Crap."
Check out the video on the article to see how it works. Looks pretty spiffy to me.
What Does it Mean?
This should change the way players get paid, the way they're ranked, and the way the fans view them. Scratch that last one—fans will probably still just look at batting average and homeruns.
But for stat freaks like myself, having a system that quantifies defense by looking at range, speed to the ball, and all these other things this system brings to the table is going to be very interesting.
It will show which of the current defensive models are the most accurate and it should tell us more about who are the best defensive players in the league. You know agents around the league are going to start using this to get guys a fatter paycheck or a starting job if teams really buy into the stats this system produces.
One of the things I love to do on this site is single out players that haven't been given a full shot in the bigs even though I'm convinced they could succeed. That's why I had so much fun writing about the inimitable Roberto Petagine.
There's another player I feel just as strongly about but, unlike the 38-year-old Petagine, he's "only" 31 years old, which means he might still get his shot.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Esteban German:
For the people out there who read the Petagine piece, you must be thinking: "How could this be a guy that Moneyball forgot? He's wearing an Oakland A's uniform, for christ's sake!"
And that's part of the mystique behind this story: Esteban German was in full swing in the A's minor league system when Moneyball came out and when the Moneyball front office was operating the team.
They either a) thought he wasn't going to make it in the bigs or b) overlooked him.
Hard to believe that they overlooked him after you see his numbers, so we'll dig into the scouting reports afterward to see what's going on here.
Esteban Makes His Case
Let's dig right into the numbers to see what type of player "the Germ" was back in his minor-league days with the A's:
He's a burner and he gets on base—that much is clear. He managed to walk 102 times as a 20-year old in 1999, which is impressive. He adjusted to each new level and capped his five-year run to the majors with a pretty good year at AAA, where he walked more times than he struck out—something he hadn't done before.
That's pretty nice progress.
The Up and Down Era
Here's where you'll see a lot of prospects get "forgotten." They dominate at the AAA level, get called up for a few ABs, and after a few seasons people start to wonder "Wasn't this guy supposed to be good?" Well, German proved that AAA was no longer a challenge to him during these three years, especially with his 2005 season.
As you'll see, he's no longer with the A's at that point—he became a free agent and signed with Texas.
Take a minute and appreciate what Texas has in this guy right now: a 26-year-old 2B/3B that can steal a base at will and get on base at a very healthy clip. He can't hit homeruns, but that's OK. This guy could be your prototypical leadoff guy—all for around $300,000.
But take a look at who Texas has on the team in 2005: Hank Blalock at 3B and Alfonso Soriano at 2B. So Esteban German gets traded to the one place where you're pretty sure he'll get a chance to start: the Royals.
Esteban Makes his First Million
Finally, Esteban German gets his shot to stick with a big-league team—even if it is the Royals. Does he get a chance to start right away? Of course not, the Royals have Mark Grudzielanek at 2B and Mark Teahen at 3B.
Anyway, over the course of three seasons with the Royals, German became a pretty solid, reliable guy off the bench. He even started hitting with a little more pop. His steals are down and his walks aren't as impressive, but these are small samples.
In 2008, German made a salary of $1,000,000 for the first time. Go German!
Oh and by the way, this isn't a case where the numbers look great and the scouts think he sucks—the scouts liked what they saw.
Where is he Today?
Where else but in the minor leagues? At the start of the 2009 season, the Royals released him to make room for the Juan Cruz signing. And then the Cubs picked him up in spring training, which was pretty cool because I thought I'd get to see him play quite a bit. And you can always use a burner with plate patience on the bench.
But for naught—he was released and then signed by Texas. Here's what the 31-year-old German has been doing at AAA Oklahoma:
Esteban German may not be Otis Nixon out there, but he's definitely got the speed and ability to steal his fair share of bases—especially because he's so good at getting on base.
My verdict? This guy should get a chance to start somewhere. Maybe the Marlins should look into it, their 2B and 3B situations aren't looking so hot right now with Dan Uggla and Emilio Bonifacio struggling.
German could turn out to be a nifty little player somewhere close to what Chone Figgins does with the Angels.
I pull for these kinds of guys because their numbers show they can play at the big-league level. But with German it's different because he isn't a power hitter. He's a small ball kind of guy, which is kind of endearing. If you like to root for the underdog like I do, he's your guy.
Señor Gammons absolutely loved reading Moneyball. It opened my eyes to a whole new way of looking at the game. It shone new light on how valuable it was to walk, giving us a new metric with which to judge baseball players: OBP.
Ever since I read that book, I've felt like someone who knows this secret about what makes a player valuable. It's a secret that has still not gained full traction in the big leagues. You hear stupid crap like Dusty Baker saying walks "clog up the bases" and that's when you realize Major League Baseball is a stubborn beast that doesn't take to new ideas very well.
One of my favorite things about Moneyball was that it gave fans like me an easy way to find undervalued players and make the case that they should be given a shot.
I'm not talking about AAAA players like Julio Zuleta (who went to Japan and became a star) that couldn't draw a walk. I'm talking about players Billy Beane himself would look at and say, "Hmmm, this guy is worth a second look."
Two players always come to mind: Esteban German and Roberto Petagine. I'll save the Esteban German story for another day (it's a good one and it isn't over yet), but today is Roberto Petagine's day.
In honor of his 38th birthday, I give you the story behind a player I think could've been a star in the Major Leagues but was ahead of his time.
I give you The Ballad of Roberto Petagine.
The Minors
You know Roberto Petagine hasn't been given the respect he deserves when you realize that most websites list his place of birth as Nueva Esparta, Venezuela. Some have it listed as Nueva Esparita, Venezuela, and one even has him born in the Dominican.
All mistakes. A little digging around on some Spanish websites shows he was born in the good ol' US of A before moving to Venezuela, where his parents are from and where he played ball.
They can't even get his birthplace right.
Anyway, he got his start in the Houston Astros' system, where he made it to triple-A as a 23-year old.
His numbers:
Just looking at those numbers (see Why OBP is So Important for the scoop on OBP), I'd be thrilled to have a 23-year-old first baseman making that kind of progress through my minor-league system. His walk rate was down at AAA, but that's understandable. Look at his walk rate and homerun count: he's a good prospect. The true test is how he would do repeating AAA or during his first taste of the Bigs.
Over the next four years, he bounced around from team to team and from the Majors to triple-A:
Most of his big league at bats were in pinch-hitting situations that didn't really give him a chance to prove what he could do. Out of his 185 games over those four years, only 60 came as a starter. That means he started an average of 15 games per season—that's not much of a chance.
He is now 27 years old and has nothing left to prove in the minors. He's already made three things clear:
He has tons of power
He draws tons of walks
He's not getting a shot
Sound familiar? We've seen this before, and very recently too. Jack Cust was Roberto Petagine until he was plucked from relative obscurity (minor-league stat freaks like myself knew about him the whole time) and thrust into the big leagues, where he eventually became an everyday major leaguer. But for the longest time, it looked like Jack Cust would never get a shot either.
Who picked him up? Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland A's. Señor Moneyball himself.
Even the New York Times had to write a little something on his story, it was just too good to pass up. For a while there, Jack Cust was on the tip of everybody's tongue.
Take a look at how the two players' career minor-league numbers stack up:
Cust draws a ridiculous amount of walks, but Petagine has a better average and doesn't strike out nearly as often, and Cust played in way more games, so keep that in mind. So what was it that scouts were looking at when they saw him play and decided not to give him a full shot?
Strengths: Petagine handles himself like the veteran he is and is a smart hitter that has the physical skills to be effective versus ML pitching. Has a natural left-hander's swing and can spray the ball enough to take away a pitcher's gameplan.
Had trouble with the hard stuff as a younger player but has improved his pitch recognition over the years and learned how to attack his pitch while playing in Japan.
Can field at first, is better than Sexson, and is a good bet to outperform Carl Everett at the plate while having some value defensively.
Weaknesses: At 34, Petagine knows what he is and what he can and can't do on the field. He can fall in love with deep counts and let good, hittable pitches go by and can be quite streaky.
He doesn't run that well, but isn't a slug, either. At a slightly advanced age he possesses slightly below average speed.
Much-traveled bat. ... Straight-up, open stance. ... Works counts, takes walks. ... Likes to extend his arms. ... Causes damage to right-center and left-center. ... Has some holes on the inner part of the plate. ... Steady defensively. ... Lacks range, but displays good hands and footwork around the bag.
Although many scouts consider him a Quadruple-A player, the fact is that he proved he could dominate the Triple-A level at the age of 25, with power, walks, and a low strikeout rate for a guy who hits home runs. 307 big-league at-bats over 5 different seasons, spread out mostly in pinch-hitting duty, was hardly a fair test of his skills.
The only real reason I can see that kept him from getting a shot was that he had some holes in his swing and scouts figured major-league pitchers would exploit it (sounds like former Cub Hee Seop Choi to me). And that makes sense, but wouldn't you give him more than 307 irregular at bats over five scattered seasons to try to make an adjustment?
Give credit where credit is due, Petagine didn't hang around to find out. Or to complain. He took his game to Japan, where he was promised a starting role and some serious money. Like Julio Zuleta and so many other players before him, Petagine decided it was time to stop messing around and start making real money and playing every day.
At least someone could see the man could play.
In 1999, he said sayonara to the US and Ohio-gozaimasu to the Japanese big leagues.
The Gaijin Years
All you need to know about what Roberto Petagine did in Japan is this:
During those six years in Japan, Petagine won three gold gloves, two homerun titles, one Central League MVP award, and over $24 million. The decision to go to Japan, in retrospect, was fantastic. He pretty much morphed into a David Ortiz type player over there, proving what he could do at a high level provided he was given the at-bats.
At the end of 2004, Petagine was 33 years old and drama ensued. His team demanded he take a 70% pay cut and his wife had a war of words with the team. That drama drove him back to the big leagues for one last shot.
This is where I got really excited: the latest Moneyball team, the Red Sox, signed him to a minor-league deal and it looked like he would finally get a shot. But of course he didn't. Instead, he was sent to AAA and put up some ridiculous numbers in Pawtucket:
And that, my friends, would be the last time we'd see Petagine put up his customary monster numbers on our shores.
Where in the World is Roberto Petagine Today?
As of today, 38-year-old Roberto Petagine is in Korea (the video earlier is from his play with the LG Twins), where he's hitting .421 with a .547 OBP. He's got 11 HRs and 34 RBIs, and that's only a quarter of the way through the season. He ranks second in HRs, RBIs, and batting average. Not bad for an old man that never got a shot. You know who's leading the league in HRs? Former Cub Hee Seop Choi. And by the way, he's making $375,000 in Korea. If you want to read more about his play in Korea, go here and here.
In Closing
Why should we care about Roberto Petagine's story? Because something so simple as OBP can show us the difference between a AAAA player like Julio Zuleta (who also became a stud in Japan, mind you) and a real talented player like Mr. Petagine.
If you can control the strike zone, get on base, and be selective, you bring value to every at bat. And the fact that he had so much power makes it ever weirded that he didn't get a shot. Nowadays you'll see all kinds of terrible hitters get starting jobs because they can hit homeruns when they don't strike out (Jeff Francoeur, anyone?).
The sad part is that with all the money put into scouting and all the complaining fans without a good farm system (I'm looking at you, Cubbies), players like Petagine still slip through the system without getting a real opportunity.
Moneyball has done a lot for the game, but the game still hasn't absorbed all the knowledge Michael Lewis dropped on it.
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