Major League Baseball players say the craziest things! But sometimes only to hispanic reporters and only in their native Spanish. Senor Gammons breaks it all down so you know what's what. And he also writes about baseball in general.
The draft is a time of expectations and excitement. Will a top pick pay off or not? Will a late rounder pull a Mike Piazza to defy all odds and prove scouts wrong? And what role will Boras play in the future of the game this year?
The Cubs are a great example—they've been absolutely terrible at producing position players that turn out to be great ML players (more on that another time). They've developed their share of pitchers, but they've had a hard time with position players. Why is that? Is it bad drafting or bad developing?
Great Players Are Drafted
This is probably what most people think. You draft a great player because he's going to be great, regardless of what team picks him. Some players don't need any help to become superstars. Sure, they're in the minority, but they exist.
These guys dominate in college (or even high school) and zip through the minors with no problem. They are the naturals, the studs that will make it to the bigs no matter who drafts them or how crappy their system is.
Here we're talking about Mark Prior, Joe Mauer, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Grace, Albert Pujols, the Upton brothers, Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters (so say all the experts), and Stephen Strasburg (see how he compares to Prior).
And then you have guys that shot up to the Bigs without even stopping at the minor leagues:
As you can see, a lot of these guys didn't pan out. But the idea here is that some guys just don't need a lot of time or development to become studs. The Pirates could've drafted Albert Pujols and he would've been a star either way.
Great Players Are Developed
Adjusting to pro ball isn't easy. Most guys need to learn how to play a full season, how to adjust to better competition, how NOT to bee the star of their team, the grind of a season, the travel, being away from home, etc.
These are the guys that have a ton of talent, but need to have time to let it bloom and develop. This is where everybody else gets grouped.
If the right coaches and teammates are around him, it will happen sooner. If not, it may take a long time or it may not happen at all, which is kind of scary. Who knows, maybe there were some superstars that just couldn't' make it out of the Cubs system because of the way their program works (or doesn't work). You never know....
Look at Corey Patterson: everyone thought he'd be a stud. He was drafted third overall but the Cubs just couldn't wait and brought him up too soon...it hindered him and now he's scuffling with the Nationals' AAA team. The development just didn't happen the way it should've. The team and the player both share the blame.
The real answer is both, obviously. You need to be skilled (and lucky) at drafting the no-brainers but you also need to recognize which players have the potential to be good and if you're the right team that can develop that talent along with them. Are the Nationals the right fit for Strasburg? It doesn't matter because everyone thinks he's going to be one of these no-brainer picks.
There has been a ton of hype surrounding this year's most likely top pick in the MLB draft: Stephen Strasburg. This guy's getting more hype than Mark Prior. With Prior, nobody was sure if he was even going to go first in the draft or not (he was the second pick because the Twins didn't want to spend too much money...they got Joe Mauer instead).
No such debate with this kid—the Nationals say they're going to pay whatever it takes to get him. That's how good they think he's going to be.
Anyway, let's take a look at both these kids' final seasons in college to see how they stack up against each other:
Right off the bat, a few things jump off the page: Prior and Strasburg absolutely dominated their leagues. Prior has less walks but Strasburg has more Ks and allows fewer hits. When it comes to the all-important WHIP (walks + hits / IP), Strasburg has the edge.
Let's take a look at what they did the season before the hype began:
Prior had an OK year while Strasburg flat-out dominated. I don't know that this "proves" anything about Strasburg being better than Prior, but it does show that he's been really really good for more than just one college season.
And let's not forget that Prior hasn't pitched in years...he may never pitch again for all we know. So you never know when it comes to this stuff.
So all the hype and money he's going to get is only going to prove itself as time goes on. For the sake of the Nationals and their fans, I sure hope they get their money's worth.
I grew up watching the Cubs on WGN, and other than the occasional Braves game on TBS, that was pretty much all the baseball I watched. So I just assumed that every team had announcers that were as good at Steve Stone and Harry Caray.
Harry is gone, but Steve is back. After a little drama with the Cubs, he left the team, which I think ranks right behind letting Greg Maddux go. This guy was amazing to listen to. He would say stuff like, "Now, what Trachsel wants to do here is throw him an inside fastball now that he's attacked him away with the off-speed stuff. With the swing this guy has, the best he'll do with a well-located fastball is pop it up to the third baseman."
And wouldn't you know it, the pitcher and the hitter would both obey his command. It was creepy to watch.
The other day I was watching some of the White Sox game (I'm not one of those Chicago fans that sees the "other" team as if they should be wiped out) and it was great to hear Steve in front of the mic again.
It's not the same as when he covered the Cubs, but man it brought back some memories. He's as good as ever.
I consider myself lucky to have watched Michael Jordan play basketball. I consider myself lucky to be able to watch Lebron James. And everyone should at least catch a game or two of Steve Stone and his play-by-play before he decides to hang'em up.
CubaEncuentro, a site dedicated to Cuban news, has a nice article giving a little background on three current Major League shortstops that came from Cuba: Yuniesky Betancourt (Mariners), Yunel Escobar (Braves), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox).
For those of you that can't read it because it's in Spanish, here are the highlights:
Neither one of these guys could get a starting job at short while playing in Cuba. There were veteran players with "name power" that would not be moved to give these guys a shot. Betacourt played 2B, Escobar played 3B, SS, and rode the pine. And Alexei played all outfield positions and even served as a kind of utility player in the infield. All of them are current ML starters at the SS position.
They all made around $432 a month down there.
Changing teams down there isn't as simple as you'd think, so they couldn't just switch teams to go to one that allowed them to start at SS. You could have three, great shortstops and you would have to play some of them out of position. Hmmm...sounds like the Dodgers outfield situation.
The crazy thing is how much these guys make now and how good they are at their position: Ramirez now makes around $100,000 per month, Escobar is at around $35,000 per month, and Betacourt makes around $192,000 per month.
And they get to start at the position they love/excel at.
So all politics and family issues aside, it's no wonder coming to the US is such an appetizing decision. It's amazing that more players don't try to come over more often.
So after re-reading my last post, I realized that I relied a lot OBP as a statistic, but I didn't really give non-stat heads a good explanations of what that number means, why it's so important, and why it helped make my point so artfully and eloquently.
And since I'll be using OBP a lot on this site, I figured I'd write something up to be clear and get everyone up to speed.
What it Means
OBP stands for On-Base Percentage and it works kind of like batting average does. Instead of just counting hits, however, it counts anytime you reach base, whether it's by getting a hit, drawing a walk, or getting hit by a pitch.
You also count walks, hit by pitches, and sacrifices in your at bats, which you normally don't do to calculate batting average.
What it Tells You
If batting average tells you how good a hitter is at getting hits, then OBP tells you how good a hitter is at getting on base.
Why It's So Important
Sounds like a pretty puny stat, doesn't it? Well, that's because the definition doesn't tell you everything you need to know.
A hitter with a higher OBP draws more walks. A hitter that draws more walks has certain valuable qualities that tend to make him a better hitter:
Patience: Not afraid to see a pitch or two or go deep into the count. Some guys hate getting into two-strike counts for fear of striking out (Corey Patterson must live in a world of fear), but if you're patient you don't mind it at all. It means you see more pitches and work the count more, which leads to...
Selectivity: Selectivity means a player will mostly swing at pitches he can effectively hit (Vladimir Guerrero's piñata swing falls into the "anti-selectivity" category). This is good because it maximizes the odds of making solid contact and doing something good with the ball. Fastball down the middle? Hammer it.
Control of the strike zone: This one relates to #2 and #1. Control of the strike zone means you know what's a strike and what isn't. It means you're more likely to let pitcher's pitches that are balls go by and not let strikes go by if they might be strike three. Nasty cutter inside? Let it go.
What Makes a Good OBP?
A .300 average is generally equated with good hitters. OBP has its own bar, only there are two of them because OBP on its own matters less than it does compared to a player's AVG:
1. A .400 OBP generally means you have a hitter that's really good at drawing walks.
2. If a hitter has a +100-point differential between his average and his OBP, that's also a very good sign. So if a guy hits .260 and has a .360 OBP that's an indicator that he's got a pretty good eye. If a hitter has a .240 AVG and a .380 OBP it means he's a pretty lame hitter but has outstanding patience, selectivity, and control of the strike zone.
Adam Dunn and Jack Cust are good examples of OK hitters with really good OBP differentials:
The interesting thing is that you rarely see players with a bad average and a high OBP. Why? Because if you have the qualities to draw a lot of walks, they will help make you a better hitter and in theory you won't be hitting .260.
And that's why OBP is such a powerful number—it tells you what a hitter has done statistically but it also shows you how patient he is, how selective he is, and the type of approach he has at the plate.
That one number can tell you all of that is pretty amazing.
Señor Gammons absolutely loved reading Moneyball. It opened my eyes to a whole new way of looking at the game. It shone new light on how valuable it was to walk, giving us a new metric with which to judge baseball players: OBP.
Ever since I read that book, I've felt like someone who knows this secret about what makes a player valuable. It's a secret that has still not gained full traction in the big leagues. You hear stupid crap like Dusty Baker saying walks "clog up the bases" and that's when you realize Major League Baseball is a stubborn beast that doesn't take to new ideas very well.
One of my favorite things about Moneyball was that it gave fans like me an easy way to find undervalued players and make the case that they should be given a shot.
I'm not talking about AAAA players like Julio Zuleta (who went to Japan and became a star) that couldn't draw a walk. I'm talking about players Billy Beane himself would look at and say, "Hmmm, this guy is worth a second look."
Two players always come to mind: Esteban German and Roberto Petagine. I'll save the Esteban German story for another day (it's a good one and it isn't over yet), but today is Roberto Petagine's day.
In honor of his 38th birthday, I give you the story behind a player I think could've been a star in the Major Leagues but was ahead of his time.
I give you The Ballad of Roberto Petagine.
The Minors
You know Roberto Petagine hasn't been given the respect he deserves when you realize that most websites list his place of birth as Nueva Esparta, Venezuela. Some have it listed as Nueva Esparita, Venezuela, and one even has him born in the Dominican.
All mistakes. A little digging around on some Spanish websites shows he was born in the good ol' US of A before moving to Venezuela, where his parents are from and where he played ball.
They can't even get his birthplace right.
Anyway, he got his start in the Houston Astros' system, where he made it to triple-A as a 23-year old.
His numbers:
Just looking at those numbers (see Why OBP is So Important for the scoop on OBP), I'd be thrilled to have a 23-year-old first baseman making that kind of progress through my minor-league system. His walk rate was down at AAA, but that's understandable. Look at his walk rate and homerun count: he's a good prospect. The true test is how he would do repeating AAA or during his first taste of the Bigs.
Over the next four years, he bounced around from team to team and from the Majors to triple-A:
Most of his big league at bats were in pinch-hitting situations that didn't really give him a chance to prove what he could do. Out of his 185 games over those four years, only 60 came as a starter. That means he started an average of 15 games per season—that's not much of a chance.
He is now 27 years old and has nothing left to prove in the minors. He's already made three things clear:
He has tons of power
He draws tons of walks
He's not getting a shot
Sound familiar? We've seen this before, and very recently too. Jack Cust was Roberto Petagine until he was plucked from relative obscurity (minor-league stat freaks like myself knew about him the whole time) and thrust into the big leagues, where he eventually became an everyday major leaguer. But for the longest time, it looked like Jack Cust would never get a shot either.
Who picked him up? Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland A's. Señor Moneyball himself.
Even the New York Times had to write a little something on his story, it was just too good to pass up. For a while there, Jack Cust was on the tip of everybody's tongue.
Take a look at how the two players' career minor-league numbers stack up:
Cust draws a ridiculous amount of walks, but Petagine has a better average and doesn't strike out nearly as often, and Cust played in way more games, so keep that in mind. So what was it that scouts were looking at when they saw him play and decided not to give him a full shot?
Strengths: Petagine handles himself like the veteran he is and is a smart hitter that has the physical skills to be effective versus ML pitching. Has a natural left-hander's swing and can spray the ball enough to take away a pitcher's gameplan.
Had trouble with the hard stuff as a younger player but has improved his pitch recognition over the years and learned how to attack his pitch while playing in Japan.
Can field at first, is better than Sexson, and is a good bet to outperform Carl Everett at the plate while having some value defensively.
Weaknesses: At 34, Petagine knows what he is and what he can and can't do on the field. He can fall in love with deep counts and let good, hittable pitches go by and can be quite streaky.
He doesn't run that well, but isn't a slug, either. At a slightly advanced age he possesses slightly below average speed.
Much-traveled bat. ... Straight-up, open stance. ... Works counts, takes walks. ... Likes to extend his arms. ... Causes damage to right-center and left-center. ... Has some holes on the inner part of the plate. ... Steady defensively. ... Lacks range, but displays good hands and footwork around the bag.
Although many scouts consider him a Quadruple-A player, the fact is that he proved he could dominate the Triple-A level at the age of 25, with power, walks, and a low strikeout rate for a guy who hits home runs. 307 big-league at-bats over 5 different seasons, spread out mostly in pinch-hitting duty, was hardly a fair test of his skills.
The only real reason I can see that kept him from getting a shot was that he had some holes in his swing and scouts figured major-league pitchers would exploit it (sounds like former Cub Hee Seop Choi to me). And that makes sense, but wouldn't you give him more than 307 irregular at bats over five scattered seasons to try to make an adjustment?
Give credit where credit is due, Petagine didn't hang around to find out. Or to complain. He took his game to Japan, where he was promised a starting role and some serious money. Like Julio Zuleta and so many other players before him, Petagine decided it was time to stop messing around and start making real money and playing every day.
At least someone could see the man could play.
In 1999, he said sayonara to the US and Ohio-gozaimasu to the Japanese big leagues.
The Gaijin Years
All you need to know about what Roberto Petagine did in Japan is this:
During those six years in Japan, Petagine won three gold gloves, two homerun titles, one Central League MVP award, and over $24 million. The decision to go to Japan, in retrospect, was fantastic. He pretty much morphed into a David Ortiz type player over there, proving what he could do at a high level provided he was given the at-bats.
At the end of 2004, Petagine was 33 years old and drama ensued. His team demanded he take a 70% pay cut and his wife had a war of words with the team. That drama drove him back to the big leagues for one last shot.
This is where I got really excited: the latest Moneyball team, the Red Sox, signed him to a minor-league deal and it looked like he would finally get a shot. But of course he didn't. Instead, he was sent to AAA and put up some ridiculous numbers in Pawtucket:
And that, my friends, would be the last time we'd see Petagine put up his customary monster numbers on our shores.
Where in the World is Roberto Petagine Today?
As of today, 38-year-old Roberto Petagine is in Korea (the video earlier is from his play with the LG Twins), where he's hitting .421 with a .547 OBP. He's got 11 HRs and 34 RBIs, and that's only a quarter of the way through the season. He ranks second in HRs, RBIs, and batting average. Not bad for an old man that never got a shot. You know who's leading the league in HRs? Former Cub Hee Seop Choi. And by the way, he's making $375,000 in Korea. If you want to read more about his play in Korea, go here and here.
In Closing
Why should we care about Roberto Petagine's story? Because something so simple as OBP can show us the difference between a AAAA player like Julio Zuleta (who also became a stud in Japan, mind you) and a real talented player like Mr. Petagine.
If you can control the strike zone, get on base, and be selective, you bring value to every at bat. And the fact that he had so much power makes it ever weirded that he didn't get a shot. Nowadays you'll see all kinds of terrible hitters get starting jobs because they can hit homeruns when they don't strike out (Jeff Francoeur, anyone?).
The sad part is that with all the money put into scouting and all the complaining fans without a good farm system (I'm looking at you, Cubbies), players like Petagine still slip through the system without getting a real opportunity.
Moneyball has done a lot for the game, but the game still hasn't absorbed all the knowledge Michael Lewis dropped on it.
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