Tyler Colvin Mania Has Brainwashed the World

Who knew all you needed to become a big shot in the major leagues was to be young and have an awesome spring? Unless your name is Stephen Strasburg. Or Aroldis Chapman. Or Starlin Castro.

Somehow Tyler Colvin beat the odds and has won the hearts and minds of lazy analysts and over-eager fans by putting up really good numbers in Spring Training.

.468, 2HR, 18 RBIs

That's the line that created all the Tyler Colvin hype that's out there. That's a sample size of 77 ABs. That, along with Colvin gaining 20 pounds of muscle over the winter, has him in some conversations as a rookie to watch for in 2010.

Which is ridiculous.

I'm even hearing people talking about how he and Starlin Castro are proof that the Cubs have finally learned to produce position players.

That's preposterous—the Cubs have HUGE problems developing position players and one great Spring Training (it was great, you have to admit) by Tyler Colvin can't change that.

One good thing about all this undeserved hype is that Starlin Castro has the spotlight off of him for a little while. Jim Hendry made the right call by sending Castro to AAA instead of AA—at least we agree on that. Having fans drool over Colvin's spring-training stats is keeping the pressure off Castro.

Props to Tyler Colvin

First of all, my hat is off to the young man. He came into Spring Training without a chance in hell to make the roster and he somehow pulled it off. How Piniella will get him any decent amount of ABs with Byrd, Kosuke, and Soriano in the lineup is beyond me (oh and don't forget Xavier Nady, whom we're paying $3 million)—but that's a separate issue.

This post isn't about how Colvin is or isn't going to be a productive ML player. I personally don't think it's going to happen this year, but I could be wrong. I've stated my opinions on the Cubs picking Colvin before and I think it was a bad choice.

I'm sure he's excited about being in the Bigs but the Cubs aren't helping his development. He didn't draw a single walk (which isn't that big a deal—it's spring training), but in his career he hasn't learned to draw walks consistently. Which isn't a big deal, except he strikes out wayyy too much. He is NOT going to learn now that in the bigs—especially not with sporadic at bats. He is going to try to produce, which is what he should be doing.

The problem here isn't that Tyler Colvin isn't ready for the big leagues. The problem is that Hendry/Piniella decided to keep him on the roster despite knowing that it isn't good for his development. Just look at his stats—he needs at least a full season at AAA before he's ready.

The problem is also lazy analysts like Eduardo Perez. He was on ESPN and he picked Colvin as his "Rookie to Watch" for 2010. How ignorant is that? Here is what Perez did: he rummaged through the league's spring-training stats and found the best numbers available. He picked out the rookie with the best stats and that's how he made his decision. How else do you explain this terrible pick?

I should've been on ESPN explaining how crazy Perez is and how crazy it is to expect him to take over for Soriano after a slow start.

Wake up people!

MLB Draft: Cubs Mess Up Again

So the first round of the draft was yesterday and the Cubs took college OF Brett Jackson, who looks like he might be a decent center fielder. But "might" and "decent" isn't very exciting way to describe your first pick in the draft. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker has on him:

It's not a great Draft class for college bats, particularly in the outfield, so one with the athleticism Jackson has is bound to be noticed. He runs well on both sides of the ball, has a decent approach at the plate and plays a good center field right now. Some may see him as a tweener who isn't a leadoff hitter or a No. 3 type. If he gets bigger he will have to move to a corner, where how much power he actually has becomes a bigger question. He's got more value if he can stay in center, and the team that takes him may be hoping he can stay put. Click here for the video.

So he isn't a leadoff guy and he isn't a power guy, although he might get some power if he gets "bigger." But then he won't be a centerfielder anymore. So basically this guy is a blank slate with great athleticism. Hmmm, sounds awfully similar to another recent top pick: Tyler Colvin. Here's what MLB's Draft Tracker had on him back in 2006:

He has a good hitting approach, though sometimes he's too aggressive. He hasn't shown much power, but there's room for growth there. He has enough speed to possibly stay in center.

Colvin's big problem, as everyone already knew before he signed, was his approach at the plate. Too many Ks and too few walks. In his minor-league career so far he's got 91 BB to 289 Ks, which is terrible. He's floundering at AA right now, which with those numbers is no surprise.

Why am I going aggro about this year's pick? Well, because Brett Jackson looks like Tyler Colvin Redux, and Tyler Colvin hasn't done jack. And quite frankly, it doesn't look like he will unless he pulls a Samardzija and starts to get better every time he gets promoted.

Have we not learned anything? Or are the Cubs just doomed to never develop another position player again? It doesn't matter if you think you develop or draft studs, the Cubs aren't going to do either with this pick.

Let's check out the stats from their final season in college:



Project Mr. Brett Jackson to a full season and he'll strike out around 180 times. For a guy with power that "might" develop, that's not good. Unless you're Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn, you're not allowed to strike out this much.

But that's not the main reason why I'm so upset about this pick. Take a look at who got picked RIGHT AFTER BRETT JACKSON: a kid named Tim Wheeler. Let's see what the Draft Tracker has to say about him:

Wheeler is a pretty advanced college hitter whose best assets are his ability to make contact and his speed. He should be the type who can hit at or near the top of a lineup with the potential to be a plus base-stealer. He uses his speed well in center and has the skills to stay there. Without much power, he probably won't be off the charts, but could be a very solid college draftee in June. Click here for the video.

So he's fast and can play center. Oh and he can hit at the top of the order. That's good to know. Not that many "maybes" in this guy's game. Let's see how his numbers compare:



Dear god! Why did we not pick this guy instead? Because he doesn't project to hit a ton of homeruns? He hit 18 to Brett Jackson's 8! Look at the young man's walks! His steals! His fielding percentage! ARGHHH!!!

What the hell is going on here?

I've been working on a post on how the Cubs suck at drafting/developing position players is so bad. So far in this year's draft they don't appear to be reversing the trend...

Note: Make sure to check out Baseball America's scouting report on all the first rounders. Jackson and Wheeler are at the bottom of the page.