Zambrano to the Bullpen: 5 Reasons why it's a Sucky Move

So the Cubs have made their first desperation move of 2010 (I'm not counting the Milton Bradley trade since the season hadn't started yet). Carlos Zambrano was taken out of the starting rotation and sent to the pen.

Here are five reasons why this is a ridiculous move:

1. Zambrano is/was an Elite Starter

He's supposedly your #1 starter and now you're sending him to the pen? I know he hasn't been awesome lately (not many wins but his WHIP and OBA are top notch) but come on—since when do we judge a starter with his track record after four starts? He still has #1 stuff and now he's in the pen.

That sucks.

2. Are Gorzelany and Silva Better than Zambrano?

Nope. But essentially that's what just happened—they both bumped Big Z from the rotation. "But look at the numbers Senor, they have been awesome!" Sure they have, but like I said before, this is after only four starts. And yeah Silva looks like a new man, but these two guys will not pitch this well for the rest of the season. You can bank on that. So what happens when they come back down to earth? Pull Z back into the rotation?

Good luck with that.

3. $$$

Zambrano is now an $18 million setup man that will pitch three or four innings a week in a role he hasn't been in for a LONG time.

I can't wait to see the bloggers (not me) start to come up with the "Z makes $X million per win" stats that are so prevalent.

Sucky sucky.

4. What if if Works too Well?

This is where I hedge my bets. What if it goes according to plan? What if Z rocks it as a setup man, starts behaving himself, and donates half his salary back to the team so they can go sign Pedro Martinez? Then your hand is forced and he has to stay in the pen. And when Gorz/Silva start to suck or someone else gets hurt—then what do you do?

Nothing—you're screwed. Mucho sucko.

5. You're Taking Z's Bat out of the Lineup

The team still isn't hitting. It's sucking. So now Big Z will probably no longer hit. Which is too bad because he might put up a higher OPS than Theriot if he had a shot at it.

Tyler Colvin Mania Has Brainwashed the World

Who knew all you needed to become a big shot in the major leagues was to be young and have an awesome spring? Unless your name is Stephen Strasburg. Or Aroldis Chapman. Or Starlin Castro.

Somehow Tyler Colvin beat the odds and has won the hearts and minds of lazy analysts and over-eager fans by putting up really good numbers in Spring Training.

.468, 2HR, 18 RBIs

That's the line that created all the Tyler Colvin hype that's out there. That's a sample size of 77 ABs. That, along with Colvin gaining 20 pounds of muscle over the winter, has him in some conversations as a rookie to watch for in 2010.

Which is ridiculous.

I'm even hearing people talking about how he and Starlin Castro are proof that the Cubs have finally learned to produce position players.

That's preposterous—the Cubs have HUGE problems developing position players and one great Spring Training (it was great, you have to admit) by Tyler Colvin can't change that.

One good thing about all this undeserved hype is that Starlin Castro has the spotlight off of him for a little while. Jim Hendry made the right call by sending Castro to AAA instead of AA—at least we agree on that. Having fans drool over Colvin's spring-training stats is keeping the pressure off Castro.

Props to Tyler Colvin

First of all, my hat is off to the young man. He came into Spring Training without a chance in hell to make the roster and he somehow pulled it off. How Piniella will get him any decent amount of ABs with Byrd, Kosuke, and Soriano in the lineup is beyond me (oh and don't forget Xavier Nady, whom we're paying $3 million)—but that's a separate issue.

This post isn't about how Colvin is or isn't going to be a productive ML player. I personally don't think it's going to happen this year, but I could be wrong. I've stated my opinions on the Cubs picking Colvin before and I think it was a bad choice.

I'm sure he's excited about being in the Bigs but the Cubs aren't helping his development. He didn't draw a single walk (which isn't that big a deal—it's spring training), but in his career he hasn't learned to draw walks consistently. Which isn't a big deal, except he strikes out wayyy too much. He is NOT going to learn now that in the bigs—especially not with sporadic at bats. He is going to try to produce, which is what he should be doing.

The problem here isn't that Tyler Colvin isn't ready for the big leagues. The problem is that Hendry/Piniella decided to keep him on the roster despite knowing that it isn't good for his development. Just look at his stats—he needs at least a full season at AAA before he's ready.

The problem is also lazy analysts like Eduardo Perez. He was on ESPN and he picked Colvin as his "Rookie to Watch" for 2010. How ignorant is that? Here is what Perez did: he rummaged through the league's spring-training stats and found the best numbers available. He picked out the rookie with the best stats and that's how he made his decision. How else do you explain this terrible pick?

I should've been on ESPN explaining how crazy Perez is and how crazy it is to expect him to take over for Soriano after a slow start.

Wake up people!

Three Reasons Why Starlin Castro Should Start at Double-A

I called it! Starlin Castro started the season in AA Tennessee. Good job Jim Hendry!

Cub fans that have been waiting for the team to produce a legit position prospect that doesn't suck are now hanging their hopes on the man with funkiest name since Esmailin "Esmokin" Caridad: slick-fielding shortstop Starlin Castro.

He was invited to spring training this year and hit .423 with a homerun and two doubles.

There was even talk that he could stick with the big club as a backup infielder. Some gun-jumpers even thought he should be handed the starting SS position and move Theriot to 2B.

Nonsense.

The Cubs made the right move sending him down to minor league camp, but they're eventually sending him to the wrong place: Starling Castro needs to start at double-A Tennessee, not in AAA Iowa.

Reason #1: He's 19 Years Old

Sure, he'll be 20 on Wednesday, but he's still too young: he's never had more than 400 ABs at any level of pro ball.

He had 196 ABs at Rookie ball (hit .311), 358 ABs in high-A ball (hit .302), and only 111 ABs at double-A, where he hit .288.

Look at all his numbers all you'll see he's only had 665 ABs! That's not nearly enough to send him to AAA. He did get another 101 ABs in the fall league (hit .376) but it still feels like a very thin road to the big leagues. Paper thin, in fact.

I don't see why we need him at AAA in 2010 when he's had so little experience.

Reason #2: Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, and Ronny Cedeño

We've been here before, folks. The next hot-shot prospect that's going to blow us all away and give us our own Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter to hang all our hopes on. I could rattle names all day long: Hee-Seop Choi, David Kelton, Kevin Orie, Eric Patterson, Brooks Kieschnick, etc.

The latest flavors of the day were Felix Pie and Corey Patterson. Corey is trying to catch on with the defensively minded Mariners, while Felix Pie is trying to earn some ABs over in Baltimore. Both of these guys were rushed up to the major leagues before they were ready.

Felix Pie was 22 years old but at least he had over 700ABs in AAA alone. Corey came up at age 20 after 900+ ABs (but none in AAA) and he was a total bust after his good half season before getting hurt.

Fans might not want to hear this after not having a position prospect that's any good for so long since Ryan Sandberg, Mark Grace, and Shawon Dunston—but players are like steaks: they need to be seasoned properly. Otherwise they choke...or something. Sure, ARod didn't hit a thing the first few times he was in the major leagues. But that was ARod—a once-in-a-lifetime player—and that was a different time. Nowadays players have to produce right away or they are replaced.

Once upon a time, shortstop was a position you wanted great defensive leadership out of. These days you better hit better than .250 or you're getting replaced with someone else, someone younger, someone with more hype.

And then we have the most apt comparison to Mr. Castro: Ronny Cedeño. These guys are mirror images of each other: slick-fielding shortstops that came out of nowhere and in one year fooled people they were going to amazing everyday players.

Ronny was 20 years old, hadn't hit better than .218 in any stop in the minors, and was regarded as having a pretty good glove. Then in AA (at age 21) he shocked the world and hit .279. That got the buzz machine started. The writers were convinced he was a top prospect and the future SS for he Cubs.

Then he got sent up to AAA the next year and hit .355 in 255 ABs. The hype machine was in full swing: Ronny was the man that was going to end the drought. Just goes to show you how thirsty we are when a season and a half is all it takes to get us fans believing that we've found our savior.

The next year he was handed the keys to the starting shortstop position and hit .245 in over 500 ABs. He was 23 years old. And that was the only chance he would get: from that season on people pegged him as either a bad player or a part-time player. These days, you don't get a second chance. Lucky for him, the Pirates suck bad enough that they're willing to give him the keys again this year for another shot. I love Ronny and I think he could really be a good player.

Check out this great story on Ronny Cedeño chronicling his whole second chance with the Pirates. The cliff-notes version is that he's lucky a team gave him another shot after he didn't perform for a whole season.

He is now 27 years old.

Reason #3: You, The Fan

Time for you to take responsibility in this whole fiasco. The biggest reason why Castro needs to start at double-A is you. You've already heard about him in spring training and now you want him up on the team. It's time to make a move, as you so often say. It's time to "see what he's got."

No, no, no.

You have no idea what you're talking about. The kid is 19 years old. Don't ruin him. Leaving him at triple-A gives fans the impression that he's almost ready. That a twisted ankle or bad stretch of play from Theriot means he gets to come up and play every day.

This is not how we should be thinking about this. Theriot is the starting shortstop. He has the experience and the track record. He is ready.

Start Castro at double-A—let him focus on getting sharper, better, readier. Starting him at triple-A gives off all the wrong messages: that he's ready, that he is close, that he should be starting today if not for Theriot's contract.

So Jim Hendry, I'm pleading with you: don't let the fans pressure you into another move like they've done so often before. Keep him away from the fans, away from the hype, and give this kid a chance to be the best player he can be.

Keep him away from us.

Jose Iglesias to the Cubs: Thank You

OK, so this isn't breaking news, but the Red Sox are going to make an announcement real soon about signing Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias for $8.2 million.

You could read about that anywhere, right?

True, but what I'm not seeing anywhere else is that their original offer was for $6.5 million. That was until the Cubs countered with an offer of their own and that led the Sox to jack it up to $8.2 million.

How do I know this? I know Spanish, that's how.

Do not underestimate what Señor Gammons can do.

Moneyball 2.0: Defense

Just finished reading this awesome piece in the New York Times about this new system of cameras that is being installed in ballparks across the country. They will be able to measure every batted ball, track the fielders chasing after it, and even see how efficiently baserunners are rounding the bases.

In other words...wow. Defense has long been the one unquantifiable part of the game, so I'm sure scouts around the country are like, "Crap."

Check out the video on the article to see how it works. Looks pretty spiffy to me.

What Does it Mean?

This should change the way players get paid, the way they're ranked, and the way the fans view them. Scratch that last one—fans will probably still just look at batting average and homeruns.

But for stat freaks like myself, having a system that quantifies defense by looking at range, speed to the ball, and all these other things this system brings to the table is going to be very interesting.

It will show which of the current defensive models are the most accurate and it should tell us more about who are the best defensive players in the league. You know agents around the league are going to start using this to get guys a fatter paycheck or a starting job if teams really buy into the stats this system produces.

It's all going to be very interesting.

Is Jim Hendry to Blame for the Cubs' Sucking?

Yesterday's article in the Tribune talks about Jim Hendry and how much blame can/should be put on him. It's an interesting idea because it applies to almost everything in life.

The basic question comes down to this: if someone makes a decision that, at the time, is the "right call," then is he/she responsible if that decision winds up not working out?

Case in point: Milton Bradley. He was third in OBP last year behind Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols. He's a switch hitter and hit 22 HRs.

When Hendry signed him, I thought it was a fantastic deal. Everyone can bitch and moan about how they should've signed Raul Ibañez instead because he's having a ridiculous season (.312 22HRs), but no one ever thought he would do what he's doing right now.

Bradley, on the other hand, was considered a good sign (by most people that know their stuff, including myself).

That has not been the case, however. He's hitting .239 with 5 HRs.

Is this Jim Hendry's fault? Should he be blamed/fired for moves like this?

According to Rick Morrissey of the Trib, he should:

You can say it's not his fault Bradley can't hit. You can say it's not his fault Soriano can't hit.

Ultimately, however, it is his fault.

Is it? Shouldn't the player ultimately feel the brunt of this? Isn't it Bradley and Soriano's fault that they haven't hit?

Sure, but you can't fire them without losing your investment, so that's why GMs and managers get fired instead.

The question is: does Jim Hendry deserve to get fired?

He's been at the helm for seven years and he's been with the team since 1995. Sure, they've become big spenders and got close to the World Series that one time, but the farm system sucks and all that money being spend on superstars doesn't seem to be invested very efficiently.

I do disagree with Morrissey in a couple of his lines:

It's a general manager's job to look into the future and see whether a player with a history of anger issues will be able to perform...

It's a general manager's job to predict whether a manager will be effective long term.

It is NOT a GMs job to predict the future. But he/she should be held responsible for a string of decisions that simply don't work out.

If you make a bunch of decisions at work that don't pan out, over and over again, wouldn't you be worried about getting fired?

Aroldis Chapman, Flamethrower, Defects from Cuban Team

One of the most promising baseball players on the Cuban National team, Aroldis Chapman, has reportedly defected from the Cuban National team during a tournament in Holland.

This according to a story on the Cuban site, Cubaencuentro.com.

The 21-year-old Chapman has reportedly hit 102 mph on the gun and pitched in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where he struck out 8 in 6 1/3 innings but had a 5.68 ERA.

He was 11-4 with a 4.03 ERA last season, striking out 130 in 118 1/3 innings.

Looks like Cubaencuentro.com actually talked to the kid and here's what he had to say:

"I'm very happy. Until now everything has come out well. It was a plan I had, a decision I took. I wanted to test myself at this level."

He wouldn't say exactly what city he was in, for security reasons. How James Bond of him.

"I left normally, through the door of the hotel, and got in a car. It was easy." He now plans to "sign with a team and play in the Major Leagues."

Looks like Scott Boras has a busy night ahead of himself. And the Yankees. And the Red Sox. And maybe the White Sox too with Alexei and Contreras on the team...