Jose Iglesias to the Cubs: Thank You

OK, so this isn't breaking news, but the Red Sox are going to make an announcement real soon about signing Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias for $8.2 million.

You could read about that anywhere, right?

True, but what I'm not seeing anywhere else is that their original offer was for $6.5 million. That was until the Cubs countered with an offer of their own and that led the Sox to jack it up to $8.2 million.

How do I know this? I know Spanish, that's how.

Do not underestimate what Señor Gammons can do.

Moneyball 2.0: Defense

Just finished reading this awesome piece in the New York Times about this new system of cameras that is being installed in ballparks across the country. They will be able to measure every batted ball, track the fielders chasing after it, and even see how efficiently baserunners are rounding the bases.

In other words...wow. Defense has long been the one unquantifiable part of the game, so I'm sure scouts around the country are like, "Crap."

Check out the video on the article to see how it works. Looks pretty spiffy to me.

What Does it Mean?

This should change the way players get paid, the way they're ranked, and the way the fans view them. Scratch that last one—fans will probably still just look at batting average and homeruns.

But for stat freaks like myself, having a system that quantifies defense by looking at range, speed to the ball, and all these other things this system brings to the table is going to be very interesting.

It will show which of the current defensive models are the most accurate and it should tell us more about who are the best defensive players in the league. You know agents around the league are going to start using this to get guys a fatter paycheck or a starting job if teams really buy into the stats this system produces.

It's all going to be very interesting.

Is Jim Hendry to Blame for the Cubs' Sucking?

Yesterday's article in the Tribune talks about Jim Hendry and how much blame can/should be put on him. It's an interesting idea because it applies to almost everything in life.

The basic question comes down to this: if someone makes a decision that, at the time, is the "right call," then is he/she responsible if that decision winds up not working out?

Case in point: Milton Bradley. He was third in OBP last year behind Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols. He's a switch hitter and hit 22 HRs.

When Hendry signed him, I thought it was a fantastic deal. Everyone can bitch and moan about how they should've signed Raul Ibañez instead because he's having a ridiculous season (.312 22HRs), but no one ever thought he would do what he's doing right now.

Bradley, on the other hand, was considered a good sign (by most people that know their stuff, including myself).

That has not been the case, however. He's hitting .239 with 5 HRs.

Is this Jim Hendry's fault? Should he be blamed/fired for moves like this?

According to Rick Morrissey of the Trib, he should:

You can say it's not his fault Bradley can't hit. You can say it's not his fault Soriano can't hit.

Ultimately, however, it is his fault.

Is it? Shouldn't the player ultimately feel the brunt of this? Isn't it Bradley and Soriano's fault that they haven't hit?

Sure, but you can't fire them without losing your investment, so that's why GMs and managers get fired instead.

The question is: does Jim Hendry deserve to get fired?

He's been at the helm for seven years and he's been with the team since 1995. Sure, they've become big spenders and got close to the World Series that one time, but the farm system sucks and all that money being spend on superstars doesn't seem to be invested very efficiently.

I do disagree with Morrissey in a couple of his lines:

It's a general manager's job to look into the future and see whether a player with a history of anger issues will be able to perform...

It's a general manager's job to predict whether a manager will be effective long term.

It is NOT a GMs job to predict the future. But he/she should be held responsible for a string of decisions that simply don't work out.

If you make a bunch of decisions at work that don't pan out, over and over again, wouldn't you be worried about getting fired?

Aroldis Chapman, Flamethrower, Defects from Cuban Team

One of the most promising baseball players on the Cuban National team, Aroldis Chapman, has reportedly defected from the Cuban National team during a tournament in Holland.

This according to a story on the Cuban site, Cubaencuentro.com.

The 21-year-old Chapman has reportedly hit 102 mph on the gun and pitched in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where he struck out 8 in 6 1/3 innings but had a 5.68 ERA.

He was 11-4 with a 4.03 ERA last season, striking out 130 in 118 1/3 innings.

Looks like Cubaencuentro.com actually talked to the kid and here's what he had to say:

"I'm very happy. Until now everything has come out well. It was a plan I had, a decision I took. I wanted to test myself at this level."

He wouldn't say exactly what city he was in, for security reasons. How James Bond of him.

"I left normally, through the door of the hotel, and got in a car. It was easy." He now plans to "sign with a team and play in the Major Leagues."

Looks like Scott Boras has a busy night ahead of himself. And the Yankees. And the Red Sox. And maybe the White Sox too with Alexei and Contreras on the team...

Open letter to Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry

OK guys, things aren't going very well. I've been talking to some of my Cub-fan friends and they're seriously pissed. Like, totally upset.

Granted, most of them are your typical, reactionary Cub fans, but with the way this team is under performing, you have to sympathize at least a little bit with them. Is it your fault? Partly. It's mostly the players' fault for sucking so bad. No change of hitting coach or manager or third baseman is going to change that.

But here are some things you can do right now to relieve some of the pressure.

1. Take Soriano out of the leadoff spot: Let him get his head straight in the 6-7-8 hole. Anywhere but at the top of the order. People are really upset about him leading off so this will placate them quite a bit.
   
2. Sign Pedro Martinez: This will get people talking and distract everyone from how bad the offense is. Maybe he can come out of the bullpen and close some games out.
3. Put Soriano at 2B, Fontenot at 3B, and Hoffpauir/Fox in LF: Those last two guys are the only ones hitting lately, so why not get them in the lineup on a regular rotation? They can't be any worse than Soriano out in LF. This way you can stop playing Blanco at 2B when all he can be is a serviceable backup.
4. Keep Gregg as the closer: Marmol is your nastiest reliever, so keep him in a place where you can use him in the 7th and 8th innings. That's why your best reliever shouldn't be your closer.
5. Lou, you're gonna have to blow your top: He sounds like he's through with "making a fool of himself" on the field with his tirades. That he's matured beyond that part of his life. But seriously, this team needs some fire so it's time for Lou to crawl up to the mound and throw a rosin grenade at an umpire. Any umpire. You're gonna let this guy show you up Lou?

Esteban German: The Man Moneyball Forgot

One of the things I love to do on this site is single out players that haven't been given a full shot in the bigs even though I'm convinced they could succeed. That's why I had so much fun writing about the inimitable Roberto Petagine.

There's another player I feel just as strongly about but, unlike the 38-year-old Petagine, he's "only" 31 years old, which means he might still get his shot.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Esteban German:



For the people out there who read the Petagine piece, you must be thinking: "How could this be a guy that Moneyball forgot? He's wearing an Oakland A's uniform, for christ's sake!"

And that's part of the mystique behind this story: Esteban German was in full swing in the A's minor league system when Moneyball came out and when the Moneyball front office was operating the team.

They either a) thought he wasn't going to make it in the bigs or b) overlooked him.

Hard to believe that they overlooked him after you see his numbers, so we'll dig into the scouting reports afterward to see what's going on here.

Esteban Makes His Case

Let's dig right into the numbers to see what type of player "the Germ" was back in his minor-league days with the A's:



He's a burner and he gets on base—that much is clear. He managed to walk 102 times as a 20-year old in 1999, which is impressive. He adjusted to each new level and capped his five-year run to the majors with a pretty good year at AAA, where he walked more times than he struck out—something he hadn't done before.

That's pretty nice progress.

The Up and Down Era

Here's where you'll see a lot of prospects get "forgotten." They dominate at the AAA level, get called up for a few ABs, and after a few seasons people start to wonder "Wasn't this guy supposed to be good?" Well, German proved that AAA was no longer a challenge to him during these three years, especially with his 2005 season.

As you'll see, he's no longer with the A's at that point—he became a free agent and signed with Texas.

Take a minute and appreciate what Texas has in this guy right now: a 26-year-old 2B/3B that can steal a base at will and get on base at a very healthy clip. He can't hit homeruns, but that's OK. This guy could be your prototypical leadoff guy—all for around $300,000.

But take a look at who Texas has on the team in 2005: Hank Blalock at 3B and Alfonso Soriano at 2B. So Esteban German gets traded to the one place where you're pretty sure he'll get a chance to start: the Royals.

Esteban Makes his First Million

Finally, Esteban German gets his shot to stick with a big-league team—even if it is the Royals. Does he get a chance to start right away? Of course not, the Royals have Mark Grudzielanek at 2B and Mark Teahen at 3B.

Anyway, over the course of three seasons with the Royals, German became a pretty solid, reliable guy off the bench. He even started hitting with a little more pop. His steals are down and his walks aren't as impressive, but these are small samples.

In 2008, German made a salary of $1,000,000 for the first time. Go German!

Oh and by the way, this isn't a case where the numbers look great and the scouts think he sucks—the scouts liked what they saw.

Where is he Today?

Where else but in the minor leagues? At the start of the 2009 season, the Royals released him to make room for the Juan Cruz signing. And then the Cubs picked him up in spring training, which was pretty cool because I thought I'd get to see him play quite a bit. And you can always use a burner with plate patience on the bench.

But for naught—he was released and then signed by Texas. Here's what the 31-year-old German has been doing at AAA Oklahoma:



Esteban German may not be Otis Nixon out there, but he's definitely got the speed and ability to steal his fair share of bases—especially because he's so good at getting on base.

My verdict? This guy should get a chance to start somewhere. Maybe the Marlins should look into it, their 2B and 3B situations aren't looking so hot right now with Dan Uggla and Emilio Bonifacio struggling.

German could turn out to be a nifty little player somewhere close to what Chone Figgins does with the Angels.

I pull for these kinds of guys because their numbers show they can play at the big-league level. But with German it's different because he isn't a power hitter. He's a small ball kind of guy, which is kind of endearing. If you like to root for the underdog like I do, he's your guy.

And also, he comes off real genuine and humble—even in Spanish interviews. Which is more than we can say for Sammy "the Douche" Sosa.

Esteban, I salute you. Godspeed.

Why Homeruns are so Important

OBP is obviously one of my favorite statistics. I loved Moneyball and I still can't figure out why so many MLB managers refuse to admit how important it is in measuring how good a player is.

But is OBP the most important statistic out there?

It depends.

If you're talking about comparing one player to another, I'd probably say yes—OBP is the best way of comparing two players. But is it the end all be all of stats?

Nope. Homeruns are.

Before you get your panties all in a bunch over sounding like a steroid-munching, ignorant fan that digs the long ball, let me explain.

Baseball is about winning. You win by scoring more runs than the other team. Scoring more runs, therefore, is the most important part of the game. So if you can do something to create a run all by yourself—and do that a lot—then you're very valuable.

Enter the homerun. Hitting a homerun means you're creating a run and an RBI in one swing. Granted, getting on base is the first step in scoring a run, but getting a homerun is an even faster way of getting on and getting in.

Ideally, you have a guy like Albert Pujols that hits tons of homeruns (37 last year) and has a high OBP (.462 last year), but if you had to place value on a player, you have to give the homerun its due.

In terms of pure statistics relative to winning ballgames, there's nothing that can compare to it. Let's take a look at the top ten players for the two categories last year.



Ideally, you have a guy on both lists, which makes Manny and Albert the most valuable players. But take a good look, would you rather have Chipper Jones or Ryan Howard (age issues aside)? Who brings more value to your team, Joe Mauer or Ryan Braun?

These are the questions we are faced with, people. Go forth and answer them.